Strategic Strikes on Crimea Are Seen as Key to Ukraine’s Victory Over Russia

A key point for Ukraine’s potential victory over Russia could be in temporarily occupied Crimea, according to Western experts. Ukrainian defense forces are currently targeting Russian military assets on the peninsula and the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge, disrupting Russian logistics.

Frederik Mertens, an analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, suggests that Ukraine is paving the way for future air attacks after the arrival of F-16 fighter jets by targeting Crimea, particularly Russian ground-based air defense systems.

“Crimea is vulnerable. The Russians have relatively limited manoeuvre space on the peninsula. Putin has a lot to lose both politically and militarily. So, if a limited number of fighters can have a real impact, it is here — and above the Black Sea that becomes fully accessible once the GBAD [ground-based air defence] on Crimea is dealt with.”

Previously, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov reported that Russia had deployed its advanced S-500 air defense system to Crimea.

Elina Beketova, a democracy expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis, believes that Ukraine’s ability to regain control of the Black Sea or apply sufficient pressure on Crimea could signal the end of the conflict.

Recent weeks have seen Ukraine successfully targeting Russian air defense installations and striking the Belbek airbase near Sevastopol.

According to Business Insider, Ukraine’s effective use of naval drones against the Russian Black Sea fleet has allowed it to resume crucial grain shipments across the Black Sea. This has forced the Russian fleet to shelter its ships away from Sevastopol.

Business Insider also notes that demolishing the illegal Crimean Bridge would represent a significant strategic and symbolic victory for Ukraine, dealing a major blow to Putin.