Kremlin Downplays Reported Ukrainian Incursion into Kursk Oblast in an Effort to Curb Domestic Panic

Russia has declared a counterterrorism operation rather than martial law to downplay the scale of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and to prevent domestic panic, according to the recent report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Meanwhile, Russian opposition outlet Verstka reports that the Presidential Administration of Russia recommended that Russian deputies and senators refrain from commenting on the events in Kursk Oblast until further notice, and to discuss the matter as briefly as possible, referring only to official statements.

Russian military bloggers have criticized the Kremlin for not declaring martial law, which would have allowed for more drastic measures such as banning rallies and demonstrations, imposing curfews, and organizing the production of defense materials. The self-proclaimed President Vladimir Putin has avoided declaring a state of war or general mobilization, demonstrating his reluctance to fully transition Russian society to a wartime footing and to avoid internal discontent.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) seems to be relying on a combination of Russian conscripts already stationed in Kursk Oblast, elements of the Northern Group of Forces, and units redeployed from lower-priority frontline areas in Ukraine to defend against the Ukrainian operation in Kursk. This strategy may exacerbate the disorganization of Russia’s chosen response.

Military analysts have noted that Russian forces are reportedly redeploying some units from elsewhere on the front to Kursk Oblast, including elements from the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade and the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment. These redeployments involve a mix of frontline units, inexperienced soldiers, conscripts, and elements from Russia’s operational reserve, potentially complicating the effectiveness of the defense.

Geolocated footage and Russian reports from August 10 indicate that Ukrainian forces are maintaining previously reported positions in Kursk Oblast and have advanced slightly beyond earlier confirmed positions. Russian sources also report successful strikes against Ukrainian positions, though these claims cannot be independently verified.

The reported Ukrainian cross-border operation into Kursk Oblast poses a potential political crisis for the Kremlin due to casualties among Russian conscripts, whom the Kremlin increasingly relies upon for border defense. Complaints from conscript families have begun to emerge, reflecting public discontent over their involvement in combat operations.

Amid these developments, Russian sources report increased Ukrainian activity in Kursk Oblast and the possibility of further Ukrainian advances.