Russian Forces Facing Manpower and Equipment Shortages, Eastern Offensive Likely to Culminate Soon, Says ISW

Russian forces lack the manpower and equipment needed to sustain an intensive offensive, and their ongoing operations in eastern Ukraine are likely to reach a culmination within the next few months, if not weeks, shows the report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on October 3.

The Russian offensive, which began in the fall of 2023, has led to incremental tactical gains in some areas but has failed to secure any major operational breakthroughs. ISW noted that while Ukrainian forces are yielding ground slowly, they are effectively defending deeper into the frontlines, inflicting heavy losses on Russian troops and preventing any rapid Russian advances.

Despite achieving limited tactical successes, Russian forces have not demonstrated the ability to capture strategically significant positions. ISW differentiates between tactical gains, which impact the immediate area of combat, and operational successes, which are crucial on a broader scale and can influence larger sections of the front line.

As of October 2, Russian troops captured Vuhledar in the western Donetsk region. Although this provides a better tactical position for further operations, ISW noted that this victory is unlikely to significantly alter the overall operational situation. The focus remains on advancing toward the H-15 highway (Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia) and eliminating Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk.

“Russia’s capture of Vuhledar will not drastically change the operational dynamics in western Donetsk region,” the report added.

“Russian forces will likely continue their efforts to achieve operational goals in this area, but progress will remain slow and limited. Similarly, other offensives targeting key objectives, such as Chasiv Yar or pushing Ukrainian forces from the left (eastern) bank of the Oskil River, are either stalled or advancing at a very slow pace.”

The ISW also highlighted that Russian forces continue to prioritize the assault on Pokrovsk, but the strategic importance of capturing the city will depend on how effectively Russian troops can integrate it into their broader maneuvers in the Donetsk region.

Earlier, the spokesman of the Tavria operational-strategic group Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn reported that Russia is preparing for assault operations in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.