A Belarusian Yak-130 Military Jet Just Breached Ukrainian Airspace. Was This a Deliberate Provoation?

On September 24, 2024, a Belarusian Yak-130 training aircraft reportedly crossed into Ukrainian airspace, prompting air raid alerts in Kyiv and northern regions. According to RBC-Ukraine, experts suggest this incident may not have been coincidental, hinting at potential provocations orchestrated by Russia through Belarus.

According to the Ukrainian Air Force’s Telegram channel, at 14:28, an unidentified slow-moving aerial target was detected at the border of Kyiv and Zhytomyr Region, having crossed from Belarus and heading south. Shortly after, at 14:29, air raid alerts were issued in Kyiv and nearby northern areas. Monitoring channels indicated that the target was likely the Belarusian Yak-130, which reportedly entered Ukrainian airspace from the Gomel region.

However, there has yet to be official confirmation that it was indeed the Yak-130.

Possible explanations

According to RBC-Ukraine source, Alexander Musienko, the head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies, suggested that the incident could be a deliberate provocation executed by Russia with Belarus’s assistance. He stated, “This was not accidental. It appears to be a test of the reaction of Ukrainian Air Forces. Additionally, it may be an attempt to identify the locations of air defense systems and conduct reconnaissance. It is also possible that this indicates Russia’s preparations for renewed attacks and airstrikes from Belarus.”

While Musienko acknowledged the possibility of the event being an accident, he expressed skepticism given the previous activities from the Belarusian direction, believing these actions are targeted.

Potential Ukrainian responses

Musienko outlined the possible reactions from Ukraine, emphasizing that the country’s airspace is closed, and all neighboring states are aware of this restriction. Under the current state of war, unauthorized flights by any aircraft—except for Ukrainian or allied planes with approval from Kyiv—are prohibited.

“The immediate action would be to alert that the aircraft has entered Ukrainian airspace and demand its departure. If the pilot does not respond to verbal warnings from air traffic control, Ukrainian aviation would be deployed. They may use gestures and potentially flares to indicate the need to leave,” Musienko explained.

He further noted that should the aircraft persist in its flight or attempt to launch missiles, it would be shot down. “In the past, missiles have been launched at us from the Belarusian direction. There is no room for error here. I believe Ukraine will demonstrate decisive actions, and if such incidents recur, these aircraft will be engaged,” he concluded.