Allowing Ukraine to Strike These 230 Key Russian Rear Targets Could Change the Course of the War, ISW Reports

According to a recent analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukraine’s ability to strike military targets in Russia’s rear is crucial for weakening Russia’s military capabilities.

ISW’s analysis highlights that the ATACMS missiles provided to Ukraine could reach at least 250 significant military and paramilitary targets within Russia. However, current U.S. restrictions limit the use of these missiles to targets within Ukraine, reducing their effectiveness by allowing only 20 out of 250 potential targets to be hit.

ISW notes that most of the 250 targets within ATACMS range are critical for supporting Russian military efforts. These include major military bases, communication stations, logistics centers, repair workshops, fuel depots, ammunition storage sites, and headquarters. Only 17 of these are airfields, which are more likely to be relocated by Russian forces, but relocating assets from the other 233 targets would be far more challenging.

ISW experts believe that the ability to strike rear targets could create significant operational pressure on Russian forces. While Ukrainian drone strikes are already threatening some of these targets, they have not yet prompted a large-scale redistribution of Russian resources. Striking Russia’s rear could force the Russian military to allocate its limited air defense and electronic warfare resources over a larger area.

The ISW analysis underscores that recent successful Ukrainian strikes with ATACMS and high-precision domestic weapons demonstrate the need for continued and expanded attacks on such targets. Expanding the use of Western-supplied weaponry could significantly enhance the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes and destabilize Russian military operations on the front.

Having access to such weaponry and lifting current restrictions could greatly increase Ukraine’s ability to inflict damage on critical targets supporting Russia’s war efforts.