Illia Kabachynskyi

Russia used its self-declared May 9 “ceasefire” not to pursue peace, but to stockpile drones and missiles for a massive strike across Ukraine. The promised prisoner exchange has also been delayed.

Russia’s spring offensive campaign is breaking against Ukrainian defenses. Russia’s armies are failing to show visible battlefield gains, and the problem runs even deeper: for the first time, the Kremlin has been systematically losing more troops than it can recruit.

Russia entered spring expecting another grinding advance across Ukraine’s front lines. It burned through tens of thousands of troops for marginal territorial gains instead, while Ukrainian drone warfare has been steadily dismantling Russia’s logistics, reserves, and offensive momentum.

In 2026, a shift is becoming visible across Europe. Countries that once focused on supporting Ukraine are increasingly turning to it for experience in fighting and defending in modern war. Kyiv, which has lived for years under the threat of Russian attacks, is ready to share with all of its partners.

The Russian army is taking heavy losses with little to show for it, driven largely by the Kremlin’s push for quick gains on the map. Meanwhile, Ukraine has nearly fully cleared Russian forces from the Dnipropetrovsk region.

A very small village in southern Ukraine called Mala Tokmachka has been under constant pressure from the Russian army for more than a year. Yet Russian forces have been unable to seize it—Ukrainian troops fiercely repel assault after assault.