India Replaces Russian MiG Fighters With French Rafales Amid Russia’s Shrinking Arms Exports

India has concluded negotiations to purchase 26 French Rafale M fighter jets for its navy in a $7.6 billion contract, further shifting away from its reliance on Russian military aircraft, Global Defense Corp reported on March 13.

The Indian Navy intends to replace its aging fleet of Russian-made MiG-29K and MiG-29KUB jets with the advanced Rafale M, marking another significant loss for Russia’s once-dominant presence in India’s defense market. The contract is expected to be signed in April during a visit by the French Defense Minister to India.

This deal comes as France overtakes Russia as the world’s second-largest arms exporter, trailing only the United States, according to a recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The report highlights that France’s arms exports surged by 47% from 2019 to 2023 compared to the previous five-year period.

Meanwhile, Russia’s arms exports have plummeted by 47% in 2024 compared to 2022—the year Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Analysts at SIPRI attribute this decline to Russia prioritizing domestic military production over foreign sales, as it struggles to replenish its own battlefield losses.

Over the past five years, Russia’s arms exports have dropped by 64%, reducing its share of the global arms market to just 7.8%. In 2018–2022, Moscow exported weapons to 47 countries, but by 2024, that number had shrunk to just 33.

Despite this downturn, India remains Russia’s largest arms customer, accounting for 38% of Russian weapons exports.

However, France is rapidly gaining ground, as nearly 30% of France’s total arms exports in recent years have been to India, according to SIPRI.

Dassault Aviation, the manufacturer of the Rafale, has reported a spike in global demand, fueled by Russia’s war in Ukraine and uncertainty over future US military aid to Europe.

The company plans to deliver 25 Rafale jets and 40 Falcon aircraft in 2025.

However, France faces a major production bottleneck. While Dassault Aviation can currently produce 25 Rafale jets per year, its American competitor, Lockheed Martin, aims to deliver 190 F-35s in 2024 alone—a stark contrast in manufacturing capacity.

Earlier, reports emerged that Russia’s arms exports plummeted by 92% from 2021 to 2024, dropping from $14.6 billion to just $1 billion.

The number of countries still purchasing Russian weapons has also shrunk to just 12, a dramatic decline that highlights the Kremlin’s weakening grip on the global defense market.