General Christopher Cavoli, Commander-in-Chief of NATO’s joint forces in Europe in a discussion at the Aspen Institute on July 18, acknowledged the difficulty in predicting the war’s course, but highlighted Ukrainian strengths.
“One key takeaway from this conflict is the importance of swift victory in modern warfare,” stated Cavoli. “Delays lead to unpredictable situations, which is where we find ourselves now.”
He emphasized that “generating power” is crucial — whichever side accumulates superior strength faster and leverages it effectively will hold the advantage.
Cavoli commended the Ukrainian strategy, focusing on:
Defense of Eastern territories by preventing Russia from freely utilizing Crimea and southern Ukraine for attacks.
Maintaining Black Sea access and securing vital trade routes and communication channels.
Building strength and continuously developing military capabilities.
“The Ukrainians have demonstrated an excellent strategy,” Cavoli said. “The key now is sustained execution.”
However, achieving this “power generation” relies heavily on support from the EU and NATO. “We need to ramp up equipment production significantly beyond initial expectations,” he acknowledged.
Cavoli cautioned against complacency: “The outcome of the war in Ukraine is critical for the future of European and global security. We can’t afford illusions about a swift resolution.”
He painted his picture of the post-war landscape: “Regardless of the conclusion, we will face a significant challenge with Russia. They will rebuild their military, maintain their aggressive stance towards NATO, and remain deeply resentful. We must be prepared for this reality.”
While funding is not the primary hurdle, industrial production within the EU and NATO needs to be streamlined to meet the challenge. “Our biggest obstacle lies in procurement,” stressed Cavoli. “This is a strategic issue for the alliance.”
He expressed confidence in the EU’s awakening to this threat: “This isn’t mere showmanship; it’s a genuine concern for the continent’s stability and the survival of its nations. Recognizing and nurturing this resolve is fundamental.”
On a separate note, Cavoli highlighted the improvement in Ukrainian troop levels, partially due to the lowered conscription age.
