Putin Threatens Nuclear Response if West Bolsters Ukraine Support

Putin implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons if the West enables Ukraine to decisively defeat Russia in order to undermine the international community's cohering strategic vision of support for Ukraine.

In a press conference on June 20, following the trip to North Korea and Vietnam, Vladimir Putin stated “that Russia is considering making changes to its nuclear doctrine, claiming that Russia is aware that an unnamed “potential adversary” is working on new elements “related to lowering the threshold nuclear weapon use."

Putin's statement was likely prompted, at least in part, by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's remarks on June 17. Stoltenberg mentioned that NATO members are considering enhanced nuclear readiness due to escalating threats from Russia and China. However, Stoltenberg did not suggest reducing the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.

According to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, Russia reserves the use of nuclear weapons for "exceptional cases" involving threats to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Putin emphasized that a potential strategic defeat in Ukraine could result in the "end of [Russia's] statehood." This statement followed his discussion on potentially lowering thresholds for the use of nuclear weapons.

Putin emphasized that a defeat on the battlefield would symbolize the end of the "thousand-year history" of the Russian state. He stressed that Russia is determined to fight until the end rather than face such a scenario.

Putin's rhetoric is strategically crafted to portray Russia's aggression in Ukraine as an existential battle for its sovereignty. By suggesting the possibility of lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use, Putin implies that Russia could resort to nuclear weapons if its forces face a decisive defeat on the battlefield. 

Putin's nuclear threat is a continuation of the Kremlin's strategy of nuclear blackmail, intended to deter Ukraine's allies from fully committing to defeating Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, the likelihood of actual nuclear escalation as a result of this threat is minimal.