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Russia Appears to Prepare New Sarmat ICBM Test Around May 9 After Repeated Failures
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Russia appears to be preparing another test launch of its troubled Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, with aviation and range closures suggesting a possible launch window around May 9, The Moscow Times reported on May 7.
Kamchatka authorities announced on May 6 that missile testing had begun at the Kura range in the Ust-Kamchatsky district. The Russian Defense Ministry barred the presence and movement of people and "any types of equipment" in the area through May 10. Officials urged residents to avoid the testing site and the surrounding territory.
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A day later, Moscow issued aviation notices covering two zones in the Barents Sea, one in the Kara Sea, several near Kura, and the Dombarovsky strategic missile range in the Orenburg region.
The closures were flagged by Pavel Podvig, a senior fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research. Podvig and Etienne Marcus, a researcher at France's Foundation for Strategic Research, assessed that the pattern pointed to a third Sarmat test.
Russia shut down identical zones during its previous attempt in November 2025, when the missile flew for roughly a minute before crashing.
The timing would be politically significant. With Moscow’s traditional military parade canceled this year over the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes, Marcus suggested the Kremlin may seek another way to project strategic power.
"This means the launch will take place around May 9, on a highly symbolic date when Russia celebrates Victory Day," Marcus wrote, noting that the launch window opens between May 8 and May 11.
Previous Sarmat launches failed at the earliest stage. In the latest test, the rocket crashed immediately after takeoff, leaving a 70-meter crater and a vast purple cloud.
In September 2024, the missile exploded directly inside its silo at the Plesetsk range.
Russia has been developing the Sarmat since 2013 to replace the Soviet-era R-36M2 Voyevoda missiles, which NATO designates as "Satan." SIPRI data shows only 34 of those missiles remain in service, with the newest produced in 1988.
The Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, promised the Sarmat would enter service in 2020, but the system has yet to complete a reliable test sequence, according to the reported failures.
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