- Category
- Latest news
Russia Banked $186B for Défense in 2025—Think Tank Warns 2026 Won’t Slow War
- Authors
![Photo of Roman Kohanets]( "Photo of Roman Kohanets")
-111f0e5095e02c02446ffed57bfb0ab1.jpeg "Photo of Roman Kohanets")
Russia will be able to sustain its war in Ukraine throughout 2026 despite mounting economic and manpower pressures, according to an assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) cited by The Guardian on February 24.
Bastian Giegerich, the think tank’s director general, said there is “little indication” that “Russia’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine for a fifth year is diminished.”
We bring you stories from the ground. Your support keeps our team in the field.
The IISS estimated Russia spent about $186 billion on defense in 2025, equivalent to 7.3% of gross domestic product, after several years of sharp growth in real terms since 2021.
A defense finance expert at the IISS said Russia’s slowing economy could mean a decline in real-term military spending in 2026, but remarked this should be weighed against the scale of the previous increases that have supported weapons procurement and recruitment.
Nigel Gould-Davies, a Russia specialist at the IISS, said there were “growing signs” that Russia’s recruitment rate has begun to fall short of monthly battlefield losses, though he said Moscow could lower casualties by reducing the tempo of offensives.
The report cited UK defense intelligence figures indicating Russia suffered 35,030 casualties in December and 31,713 in January.
The IISS also warned that Russia is using the war to refine tactics and develop missiles and attack drones, including longer-range systems that could threaten targets elsewhere in Europe.
It also underscored the need for NATO to invest more in air and drone defenses.
The Guardian report noted that European NATO allies and Canada have pledged to lift defense spending toward 3.5% of GDP by 2035, while the IISS said Europe would still take well into the 2030s to reduce dependence on the United States for key military capabilities.
Meanwhile, it was reported that Russia’s draft budget planned to further raise spending for defense and security, directing a huge share of state expenditures toward sustaining the war effort.
-9a7b3a98ed5c506e0b77a6663f5727c5.png)
-c439b7bd9030ecf9d5a4287dc361ba31.jpg "Photo of Katherina Popilnichenko")
