Russia has failed to achieve its strategic objectives in Mali, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
Around two thousand fighters from the Russian private military company Wagner have been deployed in Mali since 2021. Instead of improving security, their presence has escalated violence and deepened tensions with the Malian army.
After the 2021 coup, Colonel Assimi Goïta came to power and sought to build an alliance with Moscow. He expected Wagner forces to operate under Malian command and strengthen the fight against jihadist groups.
However, the largest jihadist network in the Sahel, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, has continued to expand its influence.
Civilian casualties have increased more than fourfold since Goïta’s takeover—from 736 per year to over 3,000 annually between 2022 and 2024.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, 80 percent of those deaths were caused not by jihadists but by Malian forces and Wagner operatives. Their tactics, based on intimidation of civilians, have failed to secure cooperation from the population.
Relations between Wagner and the Malian military have also deteriorated, with reports of disobedience, theft of equipment, and incidents of racism. In August, the junta carried out repressions against several officers who opposed Wagner’s methods.
Unlike in Sudan and the Central African Republic, Moscow has not secured access to Mali’s natural resources, including gold mines. Goïta has rejected Russian demands and is reportedly seeking alternative security and economic partnerships.
Earlier in 2025, the Wagner Group announced its withdrawal from Mali, stating that its mission was complete and its fighters were returning to Russia. The group claimed it had fulfilled its objective of restoring control over regional capitals to Mali’s government and had supported the creation of a “disciplined” national army.
-24ca8683eb01b729cd8fae98f952003a.jpg "Ukrainian Ratel-S drone equipped with a downed Shahed warhead. (Source: omelyanovi4/Instagram)")