The US and NATO intelligence, reported a significant increase in Russian casualties during their May offensive in northern Kharkiv. Daily losses for the Russian army reportedly averaged over 1,000 killed and wounded, according to the New York Times (NYT).
These estimates suggest Russia is losing troops at a rate roughly equal to its monthly recruitment of 25,000-30,000 soldiers.
This approach is known as a “meat assault” tactic, allowing Russia to establish a buffer zone along the border and impede Ukrainian counteroffensives. While Russia reportedly achieved some success using this tactic in Avdiivka, their offensive in Vovchansk appears to have stalled. The rapid influx of poorly trained recruits to replace casualties limits Moscow’s ability to form effective fighting units and further inflates their losses.
These costly tactics, which rely on overwhelming force rather than strategy, are leading to significant Russian casualties.
The US assessments rely on a combination of intelligence sources, including satellite imagery, intercepted communications, social media activity, and reports from both Russia and Ukraine.
Western intelligence sources believe Russia may not require additional large-scale mobilizations this year. They anticipate Russia replenishing its forces with new recruits, convicts, African mercenaries, and immigrants, who recently received Russian citizenship.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s efforts to fortify its positions and lay minefields are slowing down the Russian advance, potentially placing them in a stronger position.
On June 1, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry announced on that Russian troop losses in May reached 38,940, marking the highest monthly figure since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Both NATO and British intelligence agencies assess significant casualties for Russia since the war’s outset. By April, NATO’s estimates placed Russia’s losses over 350,000, while UK Defence Intelligence suggests an even higher figure, potentially reaching 500,000.
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