Ukraine’s Kursk Operation Has Weakened Russia’s Morale, Says The Hill

Ukraine’s military operation in Russia’s Kursk region has significantly shifted the dynamics of the war, notably undermining the morale of Russian army.

According to The Hill, many initially viewed the maneuver by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as a reckless gamble “given the short-term nature of previous incursions this year and last.” However, as the Kursk operation unfolds, it is becoming increasingly evident that Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has opened a new front, catching the enemy by surprise.

“The impact of Syrskyi’s August surprise reverberates far beyond the battlefield, breaking taboos and uncovering signs of disarray inside the Kremlin. The focus has now shifted away from Kyiv to Russia’s ruling elite, and their increasingly tenuous hold on power,” the article says.

If Russia wants to reclaim its territories, it will need more troops. However, this may be unfeasible if the occupying forces do not vacate their positions in Ukraine or send young conscripts to the Kursk region. The latter option poses a political challenge given Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s previous promise not to deploy them to Ukraine, according to The Hill.

“President Vladimir Putin, once so firmly in control, appears shaken, sleepwalking through bland meetings he once commanded with menace and authority. Gone are the threats of nuclear escalation, the shirtless Siberian summer holidays and the strange harangues against the West. The character transformation may reflect the accumulated psychological effects of losing a long and pointless war,” the article reports.

The associated war-driven labor shortage in the civilian economy is likely to worsen, as the war and its demand for soldiers expand, leading to rising wages and prices. Economic difficulties, a deeper Ukrainian incursion, or another attempt at large-scale mobilization could lead Russians back to street protests.

There are already signs of unrest in Russia's ethnic minority regions. The violence is expected to increase, given the disproportionate number of non-Slavic minorities who are dying in suicide attacks on Ukrainian trenches and artillery fire on the front lines.

“With Ukraine’s goals still unclear, the operation’s success remains unknown. For the Kremlin leadership, however, one outcome is certain: A time of trouble has begun,” The Hill concludes.

Since the beginning of the operation in Russia’s Kursk region, Ukraine has captured 594 Russian soldiers and now controls over 100 settlements, covering an area of 1,294 square kilometers, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky stated on August 27.