What the Kremlin Has Lost after Russia's Great Retreat from Syria

According to Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR), Russia has initiated a mass evacuation of personnel and equipment from Syria.

Notably, at the time this article was written, there have been no reports of clashes between Syrian forces and Russian troops, nor have there been attacks on Russia’s two main bases, Latakia or Tartus. However, HUR reports that one base is under siege, though combat has not yet been reported. To secure the safe withdrawal of its forces, the Kremlin has deployed several hundred special forces personnel to guard its military facilities during the evacuation.

"It is likely that the aggressor state is relying on agreements with anti-government forces to ensure an unimpeded exit from Syria. Even representatives of Moscow’s so-called diplomacy have ceased labeling groups opposing Assad’s regime as 'terrorists' and now adopt a neutral, even 'cordial,' public rhetoric. Meanwhile, frustration and demoralization persist among the remaining Russian contingent in Syria, with soldiers expressing dissatisfaction with their leaders’ organizational failures,” the HUR statement noted.

Unlike the Syrians, Israeli military forces have targeted Tartus with missile strikes, specifically hitting the area of the port used by the Syrian navy.

According to the reports of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), the evacuation is taking place in two ways.

Latakia/Hmeimim Airbase

To evacuate personnel and equipment, Russia has planned a series of military transport flights using aircraft such as the An-124 and Il-76MD. In the coming days, these planes are expected to transfer the remaining troops, weapons, ammunition, and equipment to Russian airbases in Ulyanovsk, Chkalovsky, and Privolzhsky. It is unclear how long it will take to complete the evacuation.

Latakia, Russia’s main airbase in Syria, has been operational since 2015 under an agreement with the Syrian government. The base includes infrastructure for a contingent of approximately 1,000 personnel and a fleet of about 50 aircraft and helicopters.

Tartus Naval Base

Simultaneously, Russia is evacuating its naval forces. Reports indicate that Russia is deploying its entire local flotilla to the Mediterranean. To assist in the evacuation, the cargo ship Sparta II and the landing ship Alexander Shabalin have been dispatched. Other vessels, including the landing ships Alexander Otrakovsky and Ivan Gren from Russia’s Northern Fleet, have also set course for the Mediterranean.

Anchored several kilometers from Tartus are the frigates Admiral Gorshkov and Admiral Golovko, along with a submarine and a tanker, as reported by OSINT communities.

Equipment is being dismantled and military infrastructure at Tartus is being shut down. Evacuated forces and assets are expected to head for Baltic ports due to Turkey’s closure of the Bosphorus Strait to military vessels, forcing Russia to take a longer route.

The Strategic Importance of Tartus for Russia

Tartus is Russia’s sole military base in the Mediterranean and its only military installation outside the former Soviet Union. Although long-standing, the base gained renewed significance during the war in Syria.

First of all, the base served as a crucial point for delivering weapons to Assad’s regime and executing Moscow’s broader policy of supporting the Syrian dictator. A 49-year lease agreement was signed in 2015, with Russia investing in infrastructure and stationing personnel and equipment at the site.

Second, Tartus was called “Russia’s window into Africa.” It acted as a launch point for Russian influence in Africa, including the deployment of Wagner Group mercenaries to various countries. The port was a key node in Russia’s ambitions to expand its geopolitical reach into the global south.

This partnership provided Bashar al-Assad with a steady supply of arms, military support, and a reliable ally. For Russia, the base facilitated its strategic presence in the Mediterranean, Middle East, and Africa. 

Additionally, Tartus and Hmeimim served as counterweights to Turkey’s influence in the region and as tools for obstructing energy projects, such as proposed pipelines from Asia to Europe.

Unanswered Questions

The pace of the evacuation remains uncertain. Russian aviation is still present in Syria, though the exact size of the military contingent is unclear. OSINT analysts estimate that several thousand personnel, possibly up to 7,500 troops, remain. For a full evacuation of troops, equipment, and armaments, potentially hundreds of flights will be required. For context, in 2015, Russia conducted over 300 flights to transport the resources necessary to establish its Syrian infrastructure.

Meanwhile, insiders suggest that Russia’s primary goal is to repatriate as much equipment and manpower as possible to bolster its war effort in Ukraine. This diversion of focus is one reason Assad’s regime has weakened so quickly, as the Kremlin’s attention is fixated on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.