IEA Downgrades Russian Oil Output Forecast as Production Hits 17-Year Low

The International Energy Agency has further downgraded its outlook for Russian oil production in response to sustained Ukrainian drone strikes on critical energy infrastructure, Reuters reported on September 11.

The Paris-based agency cut its crude forecast for Russia by 125,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 8.7 million bpd for 2026. The 2027 projection was also reduced by 235,000 bpd, bringing the expected average to 8.6 million bpd.

Ukrainian drone strikes have severely degraded Russia’s energy infrastructure, pushing projected oil extraction to a 17-year low. Sustained attacks on key processing facilities have knocked roughly a quarter of national refining capacity offline. The resulting plunge in domestic fuel output has previously triggered severe gasoline shortages and forced Moscow to consider expanding export bans to include diesel and kerosene.

According to Reuters, a Russian government draft forecast recently indicated that Moscow had already lowered its own oil output expectations for this year to a 17-year low. The document also showed downward revisions for fuel export projections across 2026 and 2027 due to the ongoing war against Ukraine.

The International Energy Agency reported that Russian oil production fell by 200,000 bpd in August compared to July, landing at 8.36 million bpd. This marks a significant drop of 940,000 bpd from the January peak of 9.3 million bpd and sits 695,000 bpd below levels recorded a year ago, Reuters noted.

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Western Sanctions and Ukrainian Drone Strikes Push Russian Oil Production to Lowest Since 2009

Sep 01, 2026 16:38

Moscow officially stopped publishing oil output data in April 2023. Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries confirmed the downward trend, estimating that Russian production dropped by 160,000 bpd in August to 8.718 million bpd.

The expanding reach of Ukraine’s long-range strikes is forcing even Russia’s most remote energy hubs to prepare for potential attack. In the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, an oil-producing region responsible for roughly 40 percent of the country’s crude output, local authorities have begun amending legislation to classify potential drone strikes as “extreme life situations.”

Located over 2,200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, the regional government is establishing emergency relief protocols for residents as threat warnings extend deeper into the Russian interior.

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