Is Moldova Joining the EU?

As a neighbor of Ukraine, Moldova lives in the shadow of the war. Many Moldovians fear that if Putin truly aims to reunify the former Soviet Union, then Moldova is, of course, in the line of fire. 

In October Moldova held a Presidential election. Voters had a choice between the incumbent Maya Sandu, from the Action and Solidarity Party (ASP), and Alexandr Stoianoglo, from the Pro-Russian Party of Socialists (PSRM). Also on the ballot was a vote to amend Moldova’s constitution to allow for an eventual ascension into the European Union by 2030. 

Moldova election results

Sandu, who is generally considered pro-western, won the most recent elections by a slim margin. The results were virtually split down the middle, with 50.46% of Moldovians voting for Sandu. As a result, both pro-western and pro-Russian candidates are claiming interference and the election will go to a run-off on November 3rd. In the meantime, Sandu’s government is investigating claims of Russian meddling. 

Sandu has been vocal about her suspicions of Russian interference, citing "clear evidence" that criminal groups had been working together with "foreign forces hostile to our national interests”. These groups attempted to buy some 300,000 votes she claims. On October 24th new reports surfaced showing that a prominent pro-Russian funneled $39 million into Moldova to bribe voters.

The Kremlin responded, saying "If [Sandu] is saying that she did not receive votes because of certain criminal groups, she must present evidence." Russia has also claimed the PSRM was prevented from campaigning. “They were persecuted, they were thrown into prisons, they were interrogated, they were not allowed into the country, the media were closed, internet resources were blocked, and so on." 

Sewing distrust and meddling are old pages out of Russia’s playbook and many expected interference ahead of the elections. To understand Moldova’s present, and why Sandu and her government are so leery of their opponents, it is necessary to look to the past. 

Russian meddling in Moldova

Moldova is a democracy and it’s no secret that Russia has attempted to exert control over the country by meddling in its democratic process. In early 2023, mass protests erupted in Moldova, later found to have been organized by Russia’s Wagner Group. The protests claimed to be against rising energy prices and economic issues. The reality was that they were fueled by Russia in an effort to destabilize Moldova’s pro-Western government. 

Since 1990 Russia has held a literal foot-hold in the country via the breakaway Russian-separatist enclave Transnistria, a region of Moldova. In 1991 a war took place in the Transnistria and Russian troops have been stationed there ever since. 

Are Russian soldiers in Moldova? 

The answer is technically yes. Russian “peacekeepers” patrol the border crossings into the separatist enclave of Transnistria. While part of Moldova, residents of Transinsitria view themselves as entirely separate. 

Small separatist enclaves like Transnistria exist throughout the former Soviet Union and serve as a way for Russia to continue to impose its influence over the host countries. The breakaway regions cause not only a governmental headache, they also prevent the country from joining NATO. 

Is Moldova part of NATO? 

Moldova is not a member of NATO. The existence of Transnistria prevents it from joining the alliance at present. Article 5 of the NATO Treaty states that if one country goes to war, all countries go to war. For this reason, the alliance is reluctant to offer a former invitation to any country with territorial disputes. 

This is a tactic of Russia. So long as its neighboring countries have such disputes, they cannot join NATO and Russia can continue to attempt to exert its former sphere of influence. 

South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, as well as Nagorno Karabakh in Azerbeijan, are perfect examples of this. Following a NATO invitation to Georgia in 2008, Russia suddenly invaded its South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions where it has held a presence ever since. 

Unfortunately, this situation is also true for Ukraine. Since long before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia moved ethnic Russians into Ukraine’s Donbas Region. In 2008 President George W. Bush proposed the idea of Ukraine being offered an invitation to NATO. Unsurprisingly over the next several years, Russia began to funnel support to Russian pro-speratists in the Donbas region culminating in Russian troops invading the area in 2014. Russia claimed these soldiers were mere “peacekeepers”, similar to its “peacekeepers” in Transnistria. In 2024, Putin used the ongoing war between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces in Donbas as justification for his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 

Who Moldova allies with

It is perhaps for this reason that many Moldovians look to Ukraine and worry about their own fate. Could a separatist enclave like Transnistria serve as a justification for Putin to invade Moldova? 

Moldova’s referendum to join the EU has echoes of 2014 in Ukraine, where a path EU membership was offered to Ukraine, but pro-Russian president Yanokovich shot it down. Moldova now has the chance to re-elect Sandu, its’ pro-Western candidate, and map a legitimate path towards joining  the European Union. Moldova stands at a critical crossroads, with the upcoming election and EU referendum presenting a choice between aligning with the West or remaining under Russian influence—a decision that could reshape the country’s future and its place in Europe.