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Leaked Report: Germany Believes Russian Hybrid Attacks Signal Escalation Toward Wider War
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Russia is stepping up covert attacks on critical infrastructure in Germany as part of a hybrid warfare campaign that Berlin sees as a potential precursor to a wider conflict, according to a confidential military document obtained by Bloomberg and reported on January 5.
The document, prepared by Germany’s Defense Ministry, warns that as Berlin positions itself as NATO’s main logistical hub in Europe, it expects to be among the first targets of Russian hybrid operations.
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These include sabotage, cyberattacks, and other non-military actions aimed at energy and defense infrastructure. The assessment is laid out in a classified planning paper known as Operationsplan Deutschland, which sets guidelines for coordination across federal, state, and local authorities in the event of conflict.
According to the ministry, Russia is deliberately using hybrid measures as a tool in its confrontation with the “collective West,” particularly in Germany, and these actions may also serve as preparation for a future military confrontation.
The document states that Germany would likely face direct military attacks—such as long-range missiles, armed drones, or special forces—only after an open armed assault on NATO’s eastern flank.
The language marks a shift from earlier German security planning and echoes recent warnings from Germany’s BND foreign-intelligence service chief Martin Jäger, who told lawmakers in October that Russia is prepared to test European borders and could escalate tensions into a “hot confrontation” at any time, Bloomberg reported.
Germany’s national security strategy already identifies Russia as the country’s “greatest and most immediate threat.” While a Defense Ministry spokesperson declined to comment directly on the classified document, she confirmed in general terms that Russian covert activity targeting infrastructure in Germany has intensified.
Based on national and allied intelligence, the ministry assesses that Russia is working to develop the capabilities needed to wage—and endure—a large-scale war against NATO by 2029 at the latest, even if the war in Ukraine continues at its current intensity. At the same time, the document notes that Moscow seeks to avoid a direct military confrontation with the United States.
In the event of a conventional Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank, Germany is not expected to become a frontline battlefield. However, the ministry warns that Moscow would attempt to disrupt or delay the deployment of NATO forces through Germany using hybrid tactics designed to exploit institutional weaknesses and undermine public confidence, according to Bloomberg.
The ultimate goal of these measures, the document concludes, is to obscure the scale of Russian actions, slow decision-making, and paralyze Germany’s ability to respond at all levels of government.
Previously, it was reported that more than 35,000 households and nearly 2,000 businesses in Berlin were left without electricity following a deliberate attack on key infrastructure, according to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ).
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