NATO Simulation Reports 15000 Troops Could Be Enough for Russia to Seize a Lithuanian City

Russia could defeat NATO in a simulated Baltic assault using as few as 15,000 troops, according to the Daily Mail on February 13.

The report said a war game involving former German and NATO officials modeled a Russian operation in October 2026 aimed at seizing the Lithuanian city of Marijampole, concluding that the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, could secure a victory within days if the alliance hesitated.

It said participants assessed that Russia could be positioned to mount such an operation within 12 months.

Austrian military expert Franz-Stefan Gady, who played the role of Russia’s chief of the general staff in the simulation, said the exercise envisaged the US declining to invoke NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause, while Poland activated its forces but ultimately chose not to deploy troops and Germany was reluctant to respond as Russia advanced.

“Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on what the enemy believes about our will, and in the wargame my ‘Russian colleagues’ and I knew: Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win,” Gady was quoted as saying.

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Gady also added that Russia could achieve its objectives by establishing “fire control” from Belarus and the Kaliningrad exclave, with key positions covered by rocket launchers, artillery, and drones to prevent intervention.

Polish security analyst Bartłomiej Kot, who took part in the exercise, stated that “The Russians achieved most of their goals without moving many of their own units,” adding that NATO’s response centered on de-escalation in the face of provocation, according to the Daily Mail.

Lithuania has recently moved to strengthen defenses along its borders with Russia and Belarus, including by building fortifications and withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel mines.

Earlier, it was reported that Poland is set to host Iron Defender‑25, NATO’s largest-ever military exercise on Polish soil, involving over 30,000 troops to simulate large-scale defensive operations.

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