OSINT Reports Uncover Spike in Shadow Fleet Tankers Evading Sanctions on Russian Oil

A significant increase in the use of “shadow fleet” tankers has been observed, as these covert networks continue to transport oil in violation of international sanctions. This surge in activity is directly linked to efforts by countries like Russia to bypass restrictions imposed due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the invasion of Ukraine.

According to recent findings by the OSINT project TankerTracker and detailed analyses by Windward and Vortexa, the scale and operations of the shadow fleet have been thoroughly documented. These reports reveal the extent to which this clandestine network is impacting global oil trade.

The shadow fleet, comprising tankers that use deceptive practices to evade detection, is now operating at substantial levels. TankerTracker’s data highlights the following capacities for these tankers:

- From Iran to China: 1.5 million barrels per day

- From Russia to India: 390,000 barrels per day

- From Russia to China: 366,000 barrels per day

- From Venezuela to China: 325,000 barrels per day

- From Iran to the United Arab Emirates: 200,000 barrels per day

- From Iran to Syria: 70,000 barrels per day

- From Russia to Turkey: 64,000 barrels per day

These figures represent average volumes over the past year. Notably, only one-third of these tankers are officially sanctioned by the US Department of the Treasury, with a portion registered under Iranian flags.

Windward and Vortexa’s report provides additional details on the classification of the shadow fleet. This fleet is divided into three main categories. The Cleared Fleet consists of tankers that exhibit no suspicious activity and are not involved in deceptive practices. In contrast, the Gray Fleet includes vessels that frequently change flags and ownership to obscure their origins and make tracking difficult. The Dark Fleet consists of tankers engaged in covert trade using deceptive methods, such as manipulating tracking systems.

The volume of oil transported by the Gray Fleet has significantly increased to approximately 1.4 million barrels per day, marking a 111% rise compared to pre-invasion levels. At the same time, the Dark Fleet’s oil transport has grown by 19% over the same period. These changes highlight a substantial increase in the shadow fleet’s activity in circumventing sanctions.

Dark Fleet vessels are predominantly flagged under Panama, Liberia, the Marshall Islands, and Russia, with 12% registered under European flags. The Gray Fleet also shows a trend toward increasing numbers of vessels registered in Europe, now comprising 37.5% of the fleet.

Major destinations for oil from the shadow fleet include India, China, and Turkey. These routes reflect a shift from traditional EU markets such as Italy and the Netherlands, which have reduced their Russian oil imports in response to sanctions.

As Russia and other sanctioned nations leverage these covert networks to maintain their oil exports, the global oil market is increasingly influenced by these hidden trade routes.