Potential Unconventional Attack by Russia on Alliance Could Result in “Substantial” Casualties, NATO Official Warns

On December 29, NATO officials raised concerns about the growing threat of an unconventional attack by Russia on the Alliance, which could result in significant losses. James Appathurai, a senior NATO official overseeing the Alliance’s hybrid warfare strategy, discussed the matter in an interview with Sky News.

Appathurai emphasized the increasing risk of non-traditional attacks, such as sabotage or arson, which could cause extensive damage. He explained that NATO member states must clearly define, both among themselves and in their relations with Moscow, what level of “grey zone” actions would prompt a collective response, including the potential use of military force.

He noted that the hybrid attacks from Russia against NATO countries, particularly in Europe, the United States, and Canada, have reached a level that, just five years ago, would have been deemed “absolutely unacceptable.”

These threats have escalated, with a marked increase in “kinetic” actions such as the disruption of critical undersea cables, attacks on infrastructure, and the planting of incendiary devices in cargo shipments. Appathurai linked this rise in hybrid attacks to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

“Dozens, possibly up to 100 such cases, have been documented, with many more foiled plots,” said Appathurai, who serves as NATO’s Assistant Secretary General for Innovation, Hybrid and Cyber Technologies.

When asked about the risk that a hybrid attack could trigger a collective military response under NATO's Article 5, which deems an attack on one member as an attack on all, Appathurai expressed concern that one of these attacks might escalate significantly. “There is a real possibility that such an attack could result in significant human casualties or severe economic damage,” he said. “We don’t want to find ourselves in a situation where we are unsure of our next steps.”

Appathurai’s team is currently updating NATO's strategy to better understand, deter, and respond to hybrid warfare threats. The previous strategy, developed in 2015, was based on a very different security landscape. The new strategy will incorporate plans to address various types of hybrid attacks from Russia, as well as other adversaries such as China, Iran, and North Korea, to assess the scale and direction of these threats more effectively.

The updated strategy is expected to be finalized at the NATO summit in 2025 and will also focus on how to better deter aggression and respond to it. Given the nature of hybrid warfare, any actions taken by NATO could be perceived as an escalation, a consideration that will be carefully factored into the Alliance’s response strategies.

Earlier, Russia conducted military drills simulating attacks on Finland and the Baltic states, involving tens of thousands of troops. These exercises are seen as part of Moscow’s broader strategy to establish a strategic buffer zone across Europe, with a focus on territories like Finland, Norway, and the Baltics. NATO sources highlight Russia’s ambitions to extend its influence from the Arctic to the Mediterranean, with some scenarios including amphibious landings and missile strikes on Finland.