Russia Faces Population Decline Amid Emigration and War Losses, UK Intelligence Reports

Russia continues to experience significant population decline, driven by an aging workforce, emigration, and war casualties. The Kremlin’s recent legislative measures, including fines for promoting a child-free lifestyle, are unlikely to reverse this trend, according to British intelligence on February 11.

The UK Ministry of Defense, citing intelligence assessments, reported that a court in Sevastopol, in the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula, fined a local resident $500 for allegedly promoting child-free ideology.

This follows a law signed by Russian leader Vladimir Putin in November 2024, which bans what is described as “propaganda” discouraging childbirth. Under this legislation, individuals can face fines of up to $4,000, while organizations found guilty of violating the ban may be fined up to $50,000.

British intelligence assesses that the law is an attempt to mitigate Russia’s long-term demographic challenges, which include a shrinking workforce and a declining birth rate. These issues have been compounded by the emigration of approximately 1.3 million Russians since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many of whom are young and highly educated. Additionally, military losses in the war have further exacerbated the demographic crisis.

“Demographic challenges pose a long-term structural issue for Russian society and its economy. Efforts by Russian authorities to increase birth rates are unlikely to prevent population decline in the short term,” the UK Ministry of Defense stated in its intelligence update.

Earlier, the Russian State Duma  passed laws banning the adoption of Russian children by citizens of countries where gender transition is legal and prohibiting the “promotion of refusal to have children.”