Russia Pushes to Recruit Conscripts Ahead of Fall Draft, British Intelligence Reports

As of September 27, 2024, the UK Ministry of Defence has reported that Russia is actively pressuring conscripts to sign contracts with the military, a move aimed at bolstering its forces in the ongoing war against Ukraine. This practice is particularly significant as the autumn conscription period begins on October 1, when Russian men under 30 are required to serve for one year in the army.

Despite official claims that conscripts are not being sent to fight in Ukraine, reports have emerged indicating that conscripts were involved in military operations in the Kursk region as recently as August 2024. Concerns have been raised by the families of some soldiers, who expressed alarm at the deployment of their sons to combat zones after less than four months of service. Under Russian law, conscripts may serve in combat areas only after completing four months of service and receiving the necessary training.

British intelligence suggests that the reactions of these families to the deployment of their sons to defend Russia have intensified the worries of Russian leaders about sending conscripts to Ukraine. Nevertheless, it is expected that Russia will continue to compel conscripts to sign contracts after their service, ensuring a steady supply of personnel for the war amid significant personnel losses.

Russian Military Losses in Ukraine

As reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the estimated total combat losses of Russian personnel since the onset of the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, have reached approximately 649,170 individuals, with an increase of 1,370 reported in the last day alone. Other significant losses include:

- Tanks: 8,846

- Armored personnel carriers: 17,396

- Artillery systems: 18,678

- Multiple launch rocket systems: 1,199

- Anti-aircraft systems: 961

- Aircraft: 369

- Helicopters: 328

- Tactical-level drones: 16,031

- Cruise missiles: 2,608

- Warships and boats: 28

- Submarines: 1

- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 25,411

- Special equipment: 3,192

In September, Vladimir Putin ordered an increase in the size of the Russian army to 2.39 million personnel, with the current number of servicemen estimated at 1.5 million.

The sustained pressure on Russian forces, particularly in the context of ongoing Ukrainian Kursk operations, has led to a notable rise in daily casualties. In August alone, Russian losses averaged over 1,000 personnel per day, a trend expected to continue in the coming weeks as operations extend across multiple fronts.