A Russian victory in Ukraine could cost the United States far more than the military aid it currently provides to Kyiv, according to a recent analysis by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Bloomberg reported on January 9.
The think tank estimates that a defeat for Ukraine would necessitate a surge in US defense spending, totaling an additional $808 billion through 2029.
The report suggests that Putin’s success in Ukraine would embolden Russia to threaten NATO member states and reshape the European security landscape.
“The near-term costs of assisting Ukraine so it can defend itself against Russia’s aggression are far less expensive than the long-term costs of allowing Russia to win,” AEI argued.
The $808 billion increase would push the Pentagon’s planned five-year budget from $4.4 trillion to $5.2 trillion, requiring approximately $165 billion in additional annual funding. This sharp rise would shift the Defense Department’s focus, which is currently concentrated on Asia, to counter a growing Russian threat in Europe.
The report warned that other adversaries could take cues from Russia’s success, further endangering US and global security.
“We conclude here that supporting Ukraine is in America’s best interest from a financially focused perspective,” the organization stated.
President-elect Donald Trump, set to take office soon, has not clarified whether his administration will increase or decrease military aid to Ukraine. Trump has hinted at forcing Kyiv and Moscow toward a settlement but has not indicated plans to request additional assistance from Congress.
However, Trump would inherit over $3 billion in “presidential drawdown authority,” which allows the US to allocate military aid to Ukraine directly from its stockpiles.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration announced its final $500 million military assistance package for Ukraine.