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What We Know About Zapad-2025, the Russia–Belarus War Games Near NATO’s Borders
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![Photo of Ivan Khomenko]( "Photo of Ivan Khomenko")
Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) says it is closely monitoring the upcoming Russian-Belarusian military exercises “Zapad-2025,” scheduled in Belarus from September 12 to 16, and currently sees no direct military threat to Ukraine.
According to Andrii Kovalenko, head of the NSDC’s Center for Countering Disinformation, Ukrainian intelligence is tracking troop numbers, movements, and activities.
“We see how many Russian troops are actually there and understand everything that is happening. As of today, there is no military threat to Ukraine from that direction,” he wrote on Telegram, adding that Russia is likely to amplify the drills in the information space.
Belarus’s Ministry of Defense says the biennial drills will test the readiness of the joint regional grouping of forces established in 2000.
Planned scenarios include repelling air strikes, conducting defensive operations, countering breakthrough formations, restoring territorial integrity, providing air support, and combating sabotage-reconnaissance units.
Officials in Minsk state that the maneuvers will take place away from the western borders to “reduce tensions” and that observers from NATO member states and international organizations have been invited.
According to the international intelligence community InformNapalm, Russian formations expected to take part include the 252nd, 488th, and 15th Motor Rifle Regiments, as well as the 423rd Motor Rifle Regiment of the 4th Tank Division.
Which #Russian formations will be involved in the strategic exercise “#Zapad2025” on the territory of #Belarus. According to preliminary data obtained by volunteers of the international intelligence community InformNapalm from agent sources, servicemen from the following Russian… pic.twitter.com/JX4cdkpFo2
— InformNapalm (@InformNapalm) August 9, 2025
All have combat experience in Ukraine, particularly on the Lyman and Kupiansk fronts. Some units may be participating as part of rotational recovery measures. The first train carrying Russian troops and equipment arrived in Belarus on August 6.
The exercises coincide with a series of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) drills and have drawn attention in Poland and the Baltic states, where analysts note they could be used to rehearse scenarios involving the Suwałki Gap — the narrow corridor between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad region seen as a critical link for NATO’s Baltic members.
While Kyiv assesses no immediate risk from Zapad-2025, Ukrainian security services continue to monitor for troop movements and deployment of field camps.
Earlier, The Telegraph reported that Russia may be working with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko and eastern Libyan commander Gen. Khalifa Haftar to trigger a new EU migrant crisis. EU officials have noted an unusual increase in flights between Benghazi and Minsk, recalling the 2021 border standoff when thousands of migrants were funneled into Europe.
Analysts warn that the Libya–Belarus route could be used again to pressure the EU, with Haftar’s forces showcasing Russian-supplied military equipment and controlling smuggling networks into Europe.
