Protect Putin or Protect the Refineries? Russia’s Air Defense Shortage Is Forcing a Choice

Russia’s concentration of air-defense systems around Moscow and the Valdai residence of Russian leader Vladimir Putin may be creating serious bottlenecks elsewhere, leaving major oil refineries with little or no additional protection against Ukrainian drone attacks, according to OSINT researcher Jembob on November 8.

Jembob said Russia has built more than 60 short-range air-defense towers around Moscow and Valdai since March alone.

He currently tracks roughly 181 such towers and around 250 associated air-defense launchers across Russia, but noted that at least five towers appear to have remained empty for months, including positions near Vladimir and east of Smolensk.

The buildup around Valdai creates an additional logistical problem because many of the newest positions are located dozens of kilometers from populated areas.

Unlike Moscow, where missiles and ammunition can potentially be replenished relatively quickly, remote Valdai positions require substantial stocks to be kept nearby in advance.

“The mere fact that over 60 SHORAD towers have already been built in Moscow and Valdai since March makes bottlenecks quite plausible,” Jembob wrote.

Each tower requires its own ammunition reserve, and the demand is particularly significant around Valdai because rapid resupply may not be possible during a large drone attack.

That means air-defense missiles stored there are effectively unavailable to protect other strategic sites.

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Meanwhile, Jembob said little visible reinforcement has taken place at refineries in Russia’s south and east.

The last major wave of protective earthworks at facilities in areas including Samara, Tolyatti, and Syzran appeared between September 2025 and February 2026.

Since then, he has seen little evidence of additional short-range air-defense deployments at those sites.

The pattern raises a broader question about how many Pantsir and Tor air-defense systems Russia is actually capable of producing and deploying.

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Category

War in Ukraine

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Oct 26, 2026 11:03

According to Jembob’s assessment, most newly available systems appear to be flowing toward Moscow, Valdai, and three refineries in northwestern Russia.

Isolated deployments elsewhere—such as a single new Pantsir in St. Petersburg or another launcher positioned near a substation close to Murom—appear to be exceptions rather than part of a wider expansion.

Saratov provides another example. Jembob said he had previously assumed he simply could not locate the air-defense systems protecting the refinery there.

But two separate videos released within roughly a month showed what appeared to be the same Pantsir launching a missile from Engels, across the Volga River, toward targets over Saratov.

Engels also hosts one of Russia’s most important strategic bomber bases.

If that assessment is correct, a single Pantsir positioned near Engels may be helping cover both the air base and the Saratov refinery rather than each facility having its own dedicated air-defense layer.

The problem is not limited to how many launchers Russia can manufacture.

Repeated Ukrainian attacks are also steadily consuming interceptor ammunition.

Moscow, Russian refineries, the Sochi-to-Kerch corridor, St. Petersburg, and other regions are regularly targeted by drones, forcing air-defense units to expend missiles and cannon ammunition during attacks—many of which may never become publicly visible.

Earlier, reports emerged that Russian forces have begun using truck-mounted aerial lifts as improvised mobile air defense positions around Moscow, placing troops armed with portable surface-to-air missiles high above the ground to intercept Ukrainian drones.

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