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Putin’s 2026 Donetsk Goal Is Six Years Away at Russia’s Current Pace, ISW Says
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Russian forces would need more than six additional years to capture the remaining Ukrainian-controlled territory in the Donetsk region if their current rate of advance continues, putting the potential timeline well beyond Moscow’s stated goal of taking the entire region by the end of 2026.
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According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on September 6, Russian forces advanced in the Donetsk region at an average rate of 2.36 square kilometers per day in August. At that pace, Russia would not capture the remaining 19% of the region until October 2, 2032.
ISW stressed that the calculation is an extrapolation rather than a prediction that Russia will ultimately succeed. “Russian forces will not seize Donetsk Oblast until 2032 at their current rate of advance — if they can seize it at all,” ISW wrote.
Across the entire frontline, Russian forces advanced at an average rate of 2.91 square kilometers per day in August, slightly faster than in recent months. The pace in the Donetsk region, which remains a priority for Moscow, was slower.
The institute said Russia would also have to fight through Ukraine’s remaining major fortified cities in the region, including Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka. Russian forces have been fighting for Kostyantynivka since October 2025 but have not captured the city after nearly a year of operations.
ISW said Russian leader Vladimir Putin nevertheless appears to believe that Russian forces can seize the remainder of the Donetsk region by the end of 2026.
The assessment cited a person close to the Kremlin who said ahead of US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s September 5 visit to Moscow that Putin was confident Russian forces could capture the entire region before the end of the year.
Following Putin’s meeting with the US delegation, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said the Russian leader had presented an assessment of Russia’s “significant advances” along the frontline. ISW said that characterization did not correspond with the situation on the ground.
The institute linked the gap between Moscow’s expectations and battlefield developments partly to what it described as systematic misreporting within the Russian military. According to ISW, Russian commanders have repeatedly exaggerated territorial gains and presented claims of advances that have not been confirmed independently.
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“The lies and distortions of Russian military commanders at many levels are likely leading Putin to harden his perception that Russian forces can achieve his intended objectives in Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026 and thus that he need not make any compromises in his aims,” ISW wrote.
Putin has reportedly established at least 15 deadlines for capturing the entire Donetsk region since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to ISW. Russian forces have failed to meet each of those deadlines.
The institute also cautioned that simply extending Russia’s current rate of advance into the future does not account for the difficulty of future operations. Russian troops would have to conduct attritional urban battles through Ukraine’s fortified eastern cities before attempting further advances across terrain where Russian forces have historically struggled.
Earlier, Ukrainian forces advanced in parts of the Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, while Russian troops failed to make confirmed gains across several other frontline sectors.
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