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Russia Maps Out War Scenarios to 2045, Six Involving Northern Europe, Ukrainian Intelligence Says
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Russia is considering scenarios for direct military confrontation with European countries through 2045, including potential conflicts involving Northern Europe, Poland, and the Baltic states, Ukrainian intelligence warned on October 13.
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU) published the assessment on its official website, outlining Moscow's long-term military planning and ongoing hybrid operations against Europe.
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According to the agency, Russia has not abandoned the possibility of direct armed conflict with Europe. Moscow is examining several potential military conflict scenarios through 2045, including six involving Northern Europe and others concerning Poland and the Baltic states.
The intelligence service warned that Russia could provoke a controlled regional crisis on NATO's eastern flank, forcing the Alliance to make critical decisions under severe time pressure and uncertainty.
Such a scenario would aim to expose perceived weaknesses in NATO's ability to respond collectively rather than defeat the Alliance in a direct military confrontation.
Meanwhile, Moscow continues employing hybrid warfare tactics, including sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, drone incursions, and espionage. Ukrainian intelligence estimates that approximately 400 Russian intelligence officers are operating across Europe.
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The assessment follows repeated nuclear threats from the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, who recently claimed Moscow had no intention of attacking Europe but warned that Russia could use nuclear weapons if attacked.
Ukrainian intelligence characterized Russia's activities as part of a prolonged confrontation aimed at weakening European security and undermining support for Ukraine.
Russia's covert network inside Europe has already surfaced in specific plans and arrests. Earlier in October, Russian special services were instructed to intensify hybrid operations across EU and NATO states, relying on agents recruited by the GRU and FSB.
Starlink receiving stations in Europe were identified among the likely targets. In Latvia, two citizens were detained on suspicion of gathering intelligence for the GRU on NATO activity, radar systems, and military infrastructure, with one allegedly photographing the Ādaži military base from a private aircraft.
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