With Russia’s war against Ukraine surpassing 1,000 days, pressure for a peace resolution is growing, especially with Donald Trump set to assume office on January 20, Politico reported on December 2.
As peace talks gain momentum, various ceasefire models have emerged as potential frameworks for ending the war. Politico explores and outlines all possible scenarios.
The German model
Modeled after the division of Cold War-era Germany, this model, proposed by the Nordic countries, advocates for the partition of Ukraine into regions aligned with the West and those under Russian control.
Ukraine’s western regions could join NATO, while eastern regions would remain under Russian influence.
Zelenskyy hinted at support, stating, “If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control.”
However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed any scenario involving NATO membership for any part of Ukraine, calling it “an unacceptable threat to Russia’s existence.”
The Israel model
The “Israel model”, proposed by some Western politicians, envisions Ukraine remaining heavily armed and receiving continuous Western military aid without formal NATO membership.
This approach avoids directly involving NATO in a conflict with nuclear-armed Russia.
Critics warn that Ukraine could become a permanently militarized state, facing constant threats of war. Ukrainian officials prefer NATO membership, viewing it as a more stable solution.
The Finland model
Finland’s Cold War-era neutrality has been proposed as a potential model for Ukraine.
Finland ceded some territory to the USSR in 1940 but maintained sovereignty while avoiding full NATO alignment until it joined the alliance in 2023.
However, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen dismissed the idea: “Ukraine was neutral before they were attacked by Russia. It’s definitely not something I would be imposing on Ukraine. Definitely not as a first alternative.”
The Brazil-China plan
China and Brazil have jointly proposed freezing the war and initiating peace talks. Their plan calls for a ceasefire, humanitarian aid, and an international peace conference.
Though Ukraine’s President was initially skeptical, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak expressed openness to incorporating elements of the proposal.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has voiced guarded approval, stating, “Those provisions proposed by China and Brazil contain all the right words, such as calls for peace, justice, and compliance with international law.”
Kellogg’s plan
Keith Kellogg, a special US envoy to Ukraine presented his plan, which includes ultimatums for both sides: Ukraine must agree to peace talks and pause its NATO ambitions, while Russia must negotiate or face increased US military aid to Kyiv.
The proposed plan focuses on ending Russia’s political isolation, initiating ceasefire negotiations, and offering incentives to both sides. It calls for diplomatic engagement with Russia, reducing tensions and opening dialogue between Russia, the US, and NATO. To incentivize Russia, the plan suggests delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership for up to ten years, allowing Russia to retain occupied territories, and offering partial sanctions relief.
Moscow has expressed cautious interest, but prominent Russian figures suggest any deal unfavorable to Russia would be rejected.
What Ukraine thinks
The Ukrainian President emphasized that Ukraine cannot recognize any Russian occupation of its territories as legal. Zelenskyy reiterated that Ukraine’s commitment is to restore its borders through diplomacy, not through ceding land.
He also expressed that Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, could be returned diplomatically, acknowledging that Ukraine lacks the military strength to regain the region by force at present.
“Our army lacks the strength to do that,” Zelenskyy said, referring to reclaiming all occupied territories. “We do have to find diplomatic solutions.”
His statement signals a possible shift in Ukraine’s approach, emphasizing a need for international security guarantees and NATO membership.
Furthermore, Zelenskyy highlighted the urgency of NATO protection for Ukrainian territories under its control.
Speaking to Sky News, he suggested that a ceasefire could be achieved if Ukraine’s free territories were placed “under the NATO umbrella,” while stressing that any NATO invitation must respect Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.
He rejected the idea of relinquishing occupied territories in exchange for NATO membership, emphasizing that NATO's protection is necessary to prevent further aggression from Russia.
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