What’s Inside Keith Kellogg’s Ukraine Peace Plan?

Known for his extensive military and national security experience, Kellogg previously served as National Security Advisor to Vice President Mike Pence and held key positions in the Trump administration, including Chief of Staff of the National Security Council.

In April 2024, Keith Kellogg, alongside Fred Fleitz, proposed a comprehensive framework aimed at resolving the Russia’s war in Ukraine. Dubbed as the “Kellogg Plan,” the proposal outlines a series of diplomatic, military, and political steps designed to bring an end to the hostilities and establish a new balance of power in the region.

According to Kellogg’s article and an analysis by the Center for Eastern Studies, his Ukraine policy envisions an America-first approach rooted in a strategy of Peace Through Strength, balancing incentives and pressures on both Russia and Ukraine as a path to peace.

What’s inside the plan?

1. Ending political isolation of Russia

   The plan calls for ending Russia’s political isolation by establishing diplomatic contacts with Moscow and halting the “demonization” of Russian leader Vladimir Putin. This shift in approach is intended to open the door for renewed dialogue between Russia, the US, and NATO, aiming to reduce tensions and facilitate a potential peace agreement.

2. Ceasefire and peace negotiations

   Both Russia and Ukraine would be pressured to implement a ceasefire and initiate peace negotiations. The proposal emphasizes the need for external pressure on both sides to bring them to the table, aiming for a diplomatic resolution despite the ongoing war on the ground.

3. Incentives for Russia

   To encourage Russia’s participation in peace talks, the plan offers several incentives:

   • Delayed NATO membership for Ukraine: The US and NATO would delay discussions on Ukraine’s NATO membership for a period of up to ten years, which addresses one of Russia’s key concerns.

   • Retention of occupied territories: Russia would retain control over the Ukrainian territories it currently occupies, a significant concession in the peace settlement.

   • Sanctions relief: The plan proposes partial lifting of sanctions against Russia, with the potential for full sanctions relief and a return to normal relations with the US, contingent on Russia agreeing to a peace deal that is acceptable to Ukraine.

4. Pressure on Russia

   While offering incentives, the plan also stresses the importance of maintaining pressure on Moscow:

   • The US would continue providing military support to Ukraine, reinforcing its defense capabilities and ensuring that Russia faces ongoing resistance.

   • Ukraine would receive long-term security guarantees, primarily through bilateral agreements, ensuring that Russia does not threaten Ukraine’s sovereignty in the future.

5. Incentives for Ukraine

   The plan seeks to provide Ukraine with assurances, despite the territorial concessions to Russia:

   • Non-recognition of annexations: Ukraine would not be required to formally recognize Russia’s annexations but would agree to refrain from using force to alter the current territorial status.

   • Continued military support: Ukraine would continue receiving US military assistance, possibly in the form of interest-free loans, and vague security guarantees to bolster its defense.

   • Economic benefits: Tariffs would be imposed on Russian energy exports, with the proceeds allocated for Ukraine’s reconstruction, offering some economic relief in the long run.

6. Pressure on Ukraine

   One of the more contentious aspects of the plan is the pressure placed on Kyiv. If Ukraine refuses to engage in peace talks with Moscow, the US could potentially halt military aid, significantly impacting Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

According to Kellogg, “The ‘America First’ [approach] is not isolationist and is not a call for America to withdraw from the world. However, the ‘America First’ approach to national security is characteristically distinct from the foreign policy establishment, which often keeps the United States engaged in wars to the detriment of the country, prioritizing idealistic principles over the interests of the American people.”

“Ukraine has a path forward where America can keep its own interests as a priority while also playing a role in ending the largest war in Europe since World War II. This role must be carried out through decisive ‘America First’ leadership, where bold diplomacy paves the way toward an end state. What we should not continue doing is sending weapons into a stalemate that Ukraine will find difficult to escape,” writes Kellogg.

Criticism

While the “Kellogg Plan” proposes a framework for peace, its critics argue that it heavily favors Russia. The plan offers substantial incentives to Moscow, such as territorial retention and the gradual lifting of sanctions, while Ukraine faces pressure to accept a ceasefire without substantial territorial gains. The promise of continued military aid to Ukraine is vague, and there is no clear mechanism to ensure that Russia will adhere to any agreement reached.

Some critics point out that the plan’s focus on diplomatic engagement with Russia risks legitimizing the Kremlin’s aggressive actions and undermines the West’s current policies toward Moscow. Additionally, the absence of credible penalties for a potential Russian breach of the agreement raises concerns about the plan’s long-term viability.

Despite these criticisms, the plan does avoid some of the more extreme demands Russia had previously made, such as Ukraine’s demilitarization and the recognition of its annexations. However, the proposals remain highly controversial and reflect a broader debate about how best to balance diplomacy, security, and territorial integrity in the face of ongoing war.

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine cannot recognize any Russian occupation of its territories as legal. Zelenskyy reiterated that Ukraine’s commitment is to restore its borders through diplomacy, not through ceding land.

He also expressed that Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, could be returned diplomatically, acknowledging that Ukraine lacks the military strength to regain the region by force at present. Zelenskyy’s comments came as the Pentagon announced a new $275 million military aid package for Ukraine, aimed at bolstering its defense capabilities.

Furthermore, Zelenskyy also highlighted the urgency of NATO protection for Ukrainian territories under its control. Speaking to Sky News, he suggested that a ceasefire could be achieved if Ukraine’s free territories were placed “under the NATO umbrella,” while stressing that any NATO invitation must respect Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.

He rejected the idea of relinquishing occupied territories in exchange for NATO membership, emphasizing that NATO's protection is necessary to prevent further aggression from Russia.