Entire North Korean Contingent in Kursk Could be Wiped Out by Spring, ISW Predicts

Approximately 12,000 North Korean soldiers deployed in Russia’s Kursk region could face total casualties by mid-April 2025 if current loss rates persist, according to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report on January 16.

In early January, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that 3,800 North Korean soldiers had been killed or wounded in the region. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov previously stated in November that North Korean forces were engaged in “small-scale” clashes.

However, Russian military bloggers later claimed that these troops were involved in more intensive combat operations beginning in December 2024.

The ISW estimates North Korean forces have been suffering losses of approximately 92 soldiers per day since entering large-scale battles. If the rate continues, the entire North Korean contingent in Kursk could be eliminated within 12 weeks, potentially by mid-April.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service reported on January 13 that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in action, while 2,700 have been wounded since their deployment.

“North Korean forces will likely continue to experience a higher ratio of wounded to killed, typical of armed conflicts,” the ISW noted. However, it remains unclear if or when injured North Korean troops might return to the battlefield.

Earlier, reports emerged that North Korean soldiers are set to participate in Russia’s Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9.