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Estonia Could Be Putin’s Next Target Within 7 Years, Rutte Warns
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![Photo of Ivan Khomenko]( "Photo of Ivan Khomenko")
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned that Russia could attempt to attack Estonia within the next five to seven years if NATO members fail to strengthen collective defense spending and force readiness.
In an interview with The New York Times, Rutte emphasized that while a Russian invasion is not imminent, the risk will increase over time unless the Alliance bolsters its military presence and preparedness.
Rutte was asked to comment on a recent New Yorker article that examined military exercises in Estonia simulating a potential Russian invasion.
The drills highlighted vulnerabilities, including the absence of Estonian air and naval forces, and noted that the simulated opposing force had an advantage in heavy armor and long-range firepower.
According to Rutte, the article’s findings are accurate, but do not raise alarm within NATO. “What The New Yorker described is true, but it’s not a wake-up call,” he said. “We already have all necessary plans in place in case Estonia is attacked — and the Russians are aware of that. Our response would be devastating.”
The Secretary General declined to elaborate on the specifics of NATO’s defense plans, stating, “I won’t go into details, because I know Putin watches these programs.”
Rutte stressed the importance of moving beyond planning to actual implementation. “We must not only have the plans, but also ensure we have the people and equipment to carry them out,” he said. “That is why we need to spend more.”
He reiterated that any attack on Estonia would trigger a full NATO response under Article 5, which considers an attack on one member an attack on all. “It’s not that Estonians would be left alone.
All of NATO’s strength would be brought to bear, including full support from the United States. Putin knows this. That’s why he won’t act now — but he may try in five or seven years if we fail to make the necessary investments.”
When asked whether he was confident in US commitment to NATO under President Donald Trump, Rutte responded unequivocally. “One hundred percent. I have no doubts. This was clearly stated at the final press conference in The Hague, and in all my conversations with the new US administration over the past six months. There has been absolutely no sign of hesitation — the United States remains fully committed to NATO and to Article 5.”
Rutte concluded by noting that one persistent issue within the Alliance is the uneven burden-sharing among European members. “There is one major irritant: that Europeans have not paid their fair share.”
Earlier, a NATO official warned that the Alliance must become “more lethal” to counter the growing threat from Russia, citing Moscow’s rearmament, deepening ties with authoritarian states, and increasing hybrid warfare activities. Ahead of the summit in The Hague, the official outlined plans to boost defense investment, accelerate military innovation, and reinforce long-term support for Ukraine.
