- Category
- World
Why Europe Can’t Handle High-Intensity Warfare… Yet
Russia’s war in Ukraine rages at an unprecedented scale: over a million soldiers clash on the battlefield, and Moscow loses tanks at an astonishing rate of dozens per day. But could Europe hold its ground in a war of this magnitude?
- Authors
![Illia_ kabachynskyi]( "Illia Kabachynskyi")
Research into Europe’s defense capabilities shows that many countries may not withstand a war of this intensity.
In 2025, Russia allocated a $142 billion budget for its military. Analysis of the country’s military-industrial complex shows massive investments funneled through banks, totaling over $400 billion since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. Of this, $210–$250 billion came as low-interest loans to defense contractors—many financially unstable—to fund war-related goods and services.
In other words, since 2022, Russia has already spent over $550 billion on the war in Ukraine, and its 2025 budget indicates plans to further increase spending.
Russia currently ranks among the world’s top producers of military equipment. Open-source intelligence (OSINT) estimates reveal that the country manufactures at least 15–20 new tanks each month. When combined with refurbished units, tank production climbs to as many as 100 per month. Russia also rolls out up to 30 new combat aircraft annually.
The production of Shahed combat drones is advancing at an accelerated pace. By late 2024, Russia was capable of manufacturing up to 2,000 Shahed drones monthly—double the output from earlier in the year. As a result, since the summer of 2024, Russia has been launching drones against Ukraine nearly every day, deploying an estimated 1,100–1,300 Shahed drones per month in attacks.
Russia remains highly active in missile production, reportedly spending about $1 billion each month to produce around 150 ballistic and cruise missiles. While some replenish stockpiles, others are used for massive strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and civilian population.
The Russian army now comprises over 1.5 million soldiers, with more than 600,000 deployed in Ukraine. No NATO country, except the United States, has a comparable number of troops.
Neighboring NATO members—Norway, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia—collectively maintain armed forces of fewer than 200,000 soldiers.
Can Europe stand up to this threat?
Financing
No European defense budget comes close to Russia’s. In total, European countries spent approximately €326 billion on defense in 2024, compared to €279 billion in 2023—marking a record high for Europe over the past decade.
However, individual country budgets vary significantly:
France: €40 billion
United Kingdom: €50 billion
Germany: €45 billion
Italy: €37.7 billion
Spain: €14 billion
Most European countries fail to meet NATO’s defense spending commitment of 2% of GDP, with the average across member states falling short. Proposals to increase spending to 3% or even 5% face resistance from many countries.
Each European country spends less on its military and defense than Russia, and these expenditures are often fragmented despite NATO membership. For instance, weapons procurement involves multiple suppliers, and only select countries participate in developing new solutions. This lack of a unified strategy slows decision-making and drives up implementation costs.
Armament
Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia has lost an estimated 3,000 to 9,000 tanks. Despite these massive losses, tanks remain abundant on the battlefield. Similarly, despite losing over 300 fighter jets, Russia continues to carry out airstrikes using guided bombs, which pose a significant threat to Ukraine. Artillery is the only area where Russia faces production challenges, as it struggles to manufacture barrels, while European producers—including Ukraine—have significantly ramped up production.
To illustrate Europe’s limited armament, here are tank counts for major European armies:
France: 406 tanks
United Kingdom: 227 tanks
Germany: 432 tanks
Italy: 200 tanks
Spain: 327 tanks
The largest European armies have fewer tanks combined than Russia loses in six months. Only Poland and Greece maintain substantial numbers, but their arsenals still fall short of Russia’s. KNDS, Europe’s largest tank manufacturer, lacks the capacity to meet demand, leaving some countries waiting years for Leopard tanks.
This disparity extends beyond tanks. The United Kingdom lacks adequate missile defense systems to protect against ballistic threats, a recent Sunday Times investigation indicates. A hypothetical Russian Oreshnik missile strike on the UK could go unchallenged due to the absence of effective countermeasures. Journalists note that decades of underinvestment have left the UK without sufficient ground, sea, or air-based defense systems.
Meanwhile, Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are pouring significant resources into ballistic missile development, and Ukraine’s experience demonstrates that such missiles are used on a regular basis. Germany recognized the issue of ballistic missile defense a bit earlier and signed an agreement with Israel to address it. Nearly all advancements in ballistic missile defense today are either owned by the United States or developed in cooperation with them.
We’ve also previously covered the size of armies: Russia is far ahead of European countries in this regard, as detailed in the infographic. While some European nations only began discussing increasing troop numbers or creating territorial reserves in 2024, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has already signed three decrees over the past three years to expand the size of the Russian army, which now stands at 1.5 million soldiers.
Russia is already arming itself beyond what is necessary for the war in Ukraine, and Europe may not be prepared for such a threat, reports the German newspaper Welt.
Bureaucracy
A major issue hindering Europe’s readiness is bureaucracy and the absence of a centralized decision-making authority capable of responding swiftly to critical problems, such as war.
A prime example is artillery shell production. Russia can independently produce up to 3.6 million artillery shells annually. North Korea also supplied Russia with 9 million shells in 2023–2024, with 200 North Korean factories reportedly dedicated to Russia’s war effort. In contrast, the United States aims to reach an annual production capacity of just 1.2 million shells by 2025, while Europe’s capacity is even lower.
Delays are exacerbated by the inability of European countries to coordinate and streamline production. NATO member states pledged to deliver 1 million shells to Ukraine, but the process was delayed for months. Estonia's ambassador to NATO, Jüri Luik, explained that Europe must approach this using market economy methods, and significant work is underway. in other words, bureaucratic inertia hampers Europe’s ability to confront threats effectively.
The lack of adaptability is evident in Europe’s failure to address modern challenges, like unidentified drones flying over military sites without proper countermeasures. European regulations are struggling to keep up with the rapidly evolving nature of warfare.
Hybrid warfare
Russia’s hybrid war against Europe is already underway, ranging from energy blackmail to covert sabotage and even the poisoning of European citizens by Russian operatives on European soil. Attacks target physical infrastructure, cyberspace, and navigation systems—jamming has become a significant issue in the Baltic Sea.
Some European politicians rightly point out that Russia may be preparing for a larger war—not necessarily now but in the coming years. Ignoring these preparations would be a grave mistake.
-b8fcbbfe52c8c4ebd7d839f8da0d3498.jpeg "Daniel Kosoy")
-abd2b42a61f423bf9d2e7fb18652f503.png)
-11c6351fbbec51175c788767b31f5999.png)