Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania Draft Civilian Evacuation Plans Over Fears of Russian Aggression

The Baltic states are drawing up contingency plans for potential mass evacuations amid growing concerns over Russia’s escalating military spending and aggression since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported on October 10.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—NATO members that were once annexed by the Soviet Union—have warned for months about escalating Russian aggression, pointing to cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and recent airspace violations by Russian fighter jets and drones.

According to Reuters, officials in all three countries have doubled defense spending and are now working on detailed plans for civilian protection.

“Threats could vary,” said Renatas Pozela, Lithuania’s fire and rescue chief. “It’s possible we will see a mighty army along the borders of the Baltics, with the apparent goal of taking all three countries in three days to a week.”

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The planning includes scenarios such as sabotage of communications, mass migration, unrest among Russian-speaking minorities, and disinformation aimed at triggering panic. Local authorities are preparing shelters, transport routes, and stockpiles of essential supplies. In Lithuania, the city of Kaunas alone has identified capacity for 300,000 evacuees in schools, churches, and sports arenas.

“It’s a very reassuring message to our society that we are ready and we are planning,” said Lithuanian National Security Advisor Kęstutis Budrys. “We have done our homework.”

According to Reuters, Estonia is preparing to rehouse up to 10 percent of its 1.4 million residents, while Latvia estimates that as much as a third of its population could be displaced. Officials emphasize that the plans are precautionary, not predictive—but they reflect the region’s deep concern about Russia’s actions and intentions.

Earlier, Lithuania unveiled an ambitious plan to strengthen its borders with Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave by building a three-layer defense system aimed at delaying, disrupting, and repelling any potential invasion.

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