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EU Quietly Plans Five Workarounds if Orbán Wins Hungary Election
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The European Union is discussing five possible response scenarios in the event that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán wins the upcoming parliamentary election, to prevent decision-making within the bloc from being obstructed.
The assertion was made by 10 European officials, cited by Politico on March 30
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Recently, Orbán drew criticism in Brussels after blocking a proposed EU loan package for Ukraine, a move officials viewed as harmful to both the bloc’s unity and Kyiv’s ability to secure timely support.
That was followed by allegations that Budapest maintained contact with Moscow throughout the war in Ukraine and that Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó used breaks during EU meetings to brief his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov.
If Orbán wins the election, “the gloves will come off,” one senior EU diplomat stated on condition of anonymity, as did others cited in the report.
“Many think that a red line has been crossed [with the blocking of the loan to Ukraine] and that something needs to be done—but it’s not clear what,” said a second diplomat.
Article 7 and suspension of voting rights
One scenario is the use of Article 7 of the EU treaty, the bloc’s most serious political mechanism against a member state.
In practice, that could lead Hungary to lose its voting rights in the Council if the rest of the EU concluded that Budapest was persistently violating core European values.
The problem is that this option is politically difficult, because it requires very broad backing and has so far remained out of reach.
Financial pressure through EU funds
A second scenario is tightening financial pressure on Budapest by linking access to EU funds even more strictly to rule-of-law standards.
That would mean Brussels using money rather than only political pressure to curb Orbán’s ability to obstruct collective decisions.
For many governments, this is one of the more realistic tools because Hungary has already faced funding disputes with the EU in recent years.
Legal action over blocking Ukraine aid
A third possibility is legal action against Hungary for obstructing the planned about $103.7 billion loan to Ukraine.
Consuls cited by Politico indicated that Orbán crossed a red line by threatening to block financing that had already been politically agreed, and some officials are now considering whether Budapest could be challenged in court for sabotaging the EU’s decision-making process.
Expanding qualified majority voting
A fourth scenario is to reduce the space for a Hungarian veto by expanding the use of qualified majority voting across more areas.
That would weaken Orbán’s ability to stall major decisions on Ukraine, sanctions, or other strategic issues by ensuring that one government could no longer hold up the rest of the bloc on its own.
This idea has circulated in Brussels as frustration with repeated veto threats has grown.
Working around Hungary through smaller coalitions
A fifth scenario is simply working around Hungary more often through smaller coalitions or alternative formats when unanimity is impossible.
It would not solve the Hungarian problem institutionally, but it could limit the damage Orbán could do if he wins again and continues to use obstruction as leverage.
In effect, that would mean a more flexible, multi-speed Europe in which the rest of the EU moves ahead without Budapest on certain key files.
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