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How Much Could 100 Rafale Jets Cost Ukraine?

A French Navy Rafale jet on the deck of the USS George H.W. Bush during the “Chesapeake 2018” joint deployment, May 12, 2018. (ERIC BARADAT/AFP via Getty Images)

As Ukraine outlines plans to acquire up to 100 French Rafale fighter jets, the long-term costs could stretch well beyond the estimated €22.5 billion price tag. With another major jet deal already under discussion with Sweden, what will it really take for Kyiv to rebuild its air force for the next 40 years?

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Photo of Ivan Khomenko
Ivan Khomenko
News Writer

Ukraine has officially confirmed plans to acquire up to 100 Rafale multirole fighter jets from France, as part of a broader defense cooperation agreement, according to Defense Express on November 17.

The announcement followed a political declaration signed in Paris by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which outlines future procurement of French defense systems, including air defense platforms and aviation armaments.

Preliminary agreement, not a binding contract

While the declaration represents a strategic alignment between Kyiv and Paris, it does not yet constitute a finalized purchase contract. According to Defense Express, the potential deal includes Rafale jets in the latest F4 configuration, to be delivered by 2035.

However, given Dassault Aviation’s current production backlog—estimated at nine years—meeting this timeline would likely require a ramp-up in manufacturing or adjustments to existing delivery schedules.

Estimated procurement cost: €22.5 billion

Based on recent international contracts, the projected price tag for 100 Rafale F4 aircraft could reach €22.5 billion in comprehensive terms, Defense Express reports.

This estimate is derived from past sales such as Serbia’s 2024 deal for 12 Rafale F4 jets with full weapons packages and support, valued at €2.7 billion. Similarly, India’s April 2025 order of 26 carrier-based Rafale M fighters was priced at €7.41 billion—roughly €285 million per aircraft under a full-spectrum agreement.

By comparison, earlier deals involving used Rafales—such as Greece’s 2020 acquisition of 18 aircraft for €2.4 billion and Croatia’s 2021 purchase of 12 second-hand jets for €1.15 billion—are no longer considered reliable benchmarks due to significant shifts in global defense pricing since 2022.

Operational costs could exceed acquisition price

The long-term financial commitment extends well beyond initial procurement. According to a 2023 Aviation Week study titled Fighter Aircraft Through Life Costs, the average operating cost of a Rafale is approximately $31,200 per flight hour. This includes $18,000 in maintenance and $13,200 in additional operational expenses.

A French Air Force pilot boards a Rafale Solo Display aircraft during its presentation at Saint-Dizier Air Base on March 9, 2021. (Source: Getty Images)
A French Air Force pilot boards a Rafale Solo Display aircraft during its presentation at Saint-Dizier Air Base on March 9, 2021. (Source: Getty Images)

The study, which modeled a 100-aircraft fleet operating 200 flight hours per year over 38 years, suggests that lifecycle costs could double or even triple the purchase price. Using a commonly cited rule of thumb—where the acquisition cost accounts for roughly one-third of total lifetime expenditures—the overall cost for 100 Rafale jets over four decades could surpass €50 billion.

Strategic implications and related programs

Ukraine is also exploring the purchase of over 100 Swedish Gripen fighters, as previously reported by Ukrainian outlets. While Rafale and Gripen jets differ in cost and capabilities, both initiatives point to Ukraine’s broader effort to modernize its air force with advanced Western aircraft.

The Rafale F4, for example, offers enhanced radar systems, electronic warfare upgrades, and expanded weapon compatibility.

The political declaration signed with France also includes provisions for SAMP/T surface-to-air missile systems, which would complement Ukraine’s layered air defense strategy amid continued missile and drone attacks.

Although the Rafale procurement remains at a preliminary stage, the size and cost of the potential deal reflect Ukraine’s intent to modernize its air force over the long term. If finalized, it would mark a major step in defense cooperation between Kyiv and Paris.

Earlier, Ukraine received a formal commitment from Sweden for 150 new Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighters in a deal worth $12–$15 billion.

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