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India Set to Skip Fighter Jet Contest, Snub Russia’s Su-57, and Go All-In on French Rafales
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![Photo of Ivan Khomenko]( "Photo of Ivan Khomenko")
India’s long-delayed plan to procure 114 multi-role fighter aircraft under the MRFA (Multi Role Fighter Aircraft) program may end without a competitive tender. Instead, the Indian Air Force is expected to place an order for more Rafale jets from French manufacturer Dassault Aviation.
According to Defense Express on August 14, the decision is driven by operational urgency. With the retirement of its last MiG-21s, India’s combat squadron strength will fall from 31 to 29—well below the estimated requirement of 42.5 squadrons needed to counter both Pakistan and China.
Islamabad’s plans to acquire 40 J-35A stealth fighters, a Chinese-built derivative of the F-35, have further accelerated India’s timeline.
This move would exclude other contenders from the multi-billion-euro deal, including Sweden’s Saab with its Gripen, Boeing with the F-15EX, Lockheed Martin with its India-specific F-21 variant of the F-16 Block 70, the Eurofighter Typhoon, and Russia’s Su-57.
India has been operating Rafale jets since 2016, when it ordered 36 aircraft for €7.8 billion, followed by an April 2025 order for 26 Rafale-M naval variants worth €6.6 billion. The country has already invested in Rafale-compatible weapons, training, and infrastructure, and is localizing production through Tata, which assembles fuselages.
From Ukraine’s perspective, this outcome has potential benefits. Dassault’s production capacity is already constrained, with new Rafales priced at €225 million and delivery times stretching up to nine years. This makes Rafale acquisitions by Ukraine unlikely.
If India had instead selected the Gripen or F-21, production lines for these aircraft could have been occupied for years, limiting availability for Ukraine. Saab has been expanding its Gripen export base, recently securing deals with Thailand, Colombia, and Peru, while the F-16/F-21 production queue remains relatively short but could be extended by large new orders.
Earlier, India signed a $7.4 billion deal with France for 26 Rafale marine fighter jets to replace its Russian MiG-29Ks, further reducing reliance on Russian arms. The move follows a broader shift away from Moscow’s defense industry, with India halting or abandoning projects involving Kamov helicopters, Sukhoi jets, and Su-57 development, while favoring contracts with Western suppliers.
-24ca8683eb01b729cd8fae98f952003a.jpg "Ukrainian Ratel-S drone equipped with a downed Shahed warhead. (Source: omelyanovi4/Instagram)")
-0158b6b681e3668f470de36aedad9e3c.jpg "Russian Su-24 bomber moments before Ukrainian drone strike, Crimea. (Source: HUR)")
