Poland Could Be Russia’s Next Target if Ukraine Falls, Intel Chief Warns

Russia perceives itself as an empire rather than a federation, and its ambitions could extend beyond Ukraine, according to Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR).

Speaking at a special session of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference on February 24, Budanov outlined a potential scenario in which Russia, if successful in occupying Ukraine, might target other European countries.

According to Budanov, Russia aims to restore an empire similar to the Soviet Union but incorporating countries of the former Warsaw Pact. He stated that if Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine were to unite under a single entity—an unlikely but possible worst-case scenario—Poland would be the next target.

“If we imagine the worst-case scenario, and these three countries were to merge into one, Poland would be next. I am stating this directly. There is no need to fear this possibility; it must be understood. Following Poland, the next targets could be the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Bulgaria. The former Warsaw Pact countries represent the minimum objective if an empire is formed,” Budanov said.

The Warsaw Pact, signed on May 14, 1955, was a military alliance between the Soviet Union and several Eastern European nations, including Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, East Germany, and Albania. It dissolved in 1991 following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Budanov emphasized that Ukraine remains a crucial element in Russia’s broader geopolitical ambitions, and Moscow is likely to continue efforts—both military and political—to bring Ukraine under its control.

Earlier, a study by Statistics Poland (GUS) in July found that 70% of Poles consider Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine a threat to their country’s sovereignty, with 30.1% seeing it as very significant and 39.9% as moderate. Meanwhile, 23.8% viewed the threat as minimal, and 6.2% saw no threat at all.