Putin Will Not Survive Losing War in Ukraine, Says Head of Estonian Intel

Russia could ignite a global armed conflict with NATO if Vladimir Putin believes he can emerge unscathed from such a situation, but at the same time Putin will not survive Russia’s defeat, said Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service in an interview with DW’s Conflict Zone on October 3.

According to a February 2024 report from Estonia’s intelligence agency, Moscow is preparing for potential military confrontation with the West, which could occur within the next decade.

“I don’t think Putin will survive Russia’s defeat,” Rosin said and added that the outcome of the war in Ukraine will heavily influence Russia’s future actions. “The big question is how the conflict in Ukraine ends. If Russia emerges victorious and confident, it will base all future calculations on this scenario,” he said. He noted the West must ensure Russia emerges from the war weakened, forcing the Kremlin to address internal issues that could arise from a military defeat.

Another key factor, according to Rosin, is how long it will take Russia to rebuild or create new armed forces. He noted that Russia’s military has grown by several hundred thousand soldiers since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, and the country is expanding its production of ammunition and advanced weapons, some of which have yet to be deployed in Ukraine.

However, Rosin believes Russia will struggle to recover from its current losses in manpower and equipment in the coming years.

Earlier, British Intelligence reported that Russia sees highest daily losses since 2022 for 4 months in a row.