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Russia Loses Grip on India’s Oil Market as Middle East Reclaims Top Spot
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Russia’s portion of India’s crude oil imports dropped in January to its lowest level since October 2022, when New Delhi was only beginning to ramp up purchases from Moscow following the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Kpler lead analyst Sumit Ritolia told Reuters on February 18.
To offset the decline in Russian deliveries, India sharply increased purchases from the Middle East, which accounted for 55% of total imports, compared with 21.2% from Russia.
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Such a shift has not been seen since autumn 2022, when discounted Russian Urals crude—abandoned by much of Europe—began displacing Middle Eastern grades in India’s supply mix.
February data already indicate that Saudi Arabia has regained its position as India’s top supplier, with overall import volumes reaching a new record, Ritolia said.
In January, India imported about 1.1 million barrels per day of Russian oil, down 23.5% from December and roughly one-third lower than a year earlier.
The downward trend is expected to continue. If February imports remain around 1–1.2 million barrels per day, March volumes could fall to approximately 800,000 barrels per day, according to Ritolia.
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Kpler estimates that while Russian supplies are likely to gradually decline in the medium term, they are unlikely to disappear completely.
One key buyer is Nayara Energy, which is controlled by Rosneft and remains under European Union sanctions. The company operates a refinery with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day and has no alternative crude supply sources, ensuring continued—though reduced—flows of Russian oil.
Meanwhile, India’s imports from Latin America climbed to a 12-month high of about 10% in January, further reshaping the country’s energy sourcing, according to Reuters.
Earlier, reports emerged that China increased imports of sanctioned Russian oil transported by vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet in January 2026, while India significantly reduced its purchases.
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