Russia Plans Three-Pronged Attack to Destabilize Ukraine in May, Warns Intelligence

Russia will try to destabilize the situation in Ukraine by using a “three-layer” plan in May, said the Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR), Vadym Skibitskyi.

The Deputy Head stated that in an interview with The Economist, published on May 2.

According to the representative of the GUR, May will be a “key month” and Russia will be following a “three-layer” plan to achieve gains in Ukraine.

The first factor is a military one. Even though the US Congress has given the go-ahead for the $61 billion military aid funding for Ukraine, it will take weeks before it starts reaching the front lines.

Moreover, this aid is unlikely to match Russia’s stockpiles of shells or provide effective protection against Russia’s low-tech, destructive guided aerial bombs.

The second factor is Russia’s disinformation campaign in Ukraine, aimed at undermining Ukrainian mobilization and the political legitimacy of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose presidential term tentatively ends on May 20.

Although the Ukrainian constitution does not allow elections to be held when martial law is in effect, Russia could still use the absence of presidential elections as a tool in the information war.

The third factor, according to Skibitskyi, is Russia’s campaign to destabilize Ukraine’s image in the international community. “They will be shaking things up whichever way they can.”

The intelligence Deputy Head has also mentioned that Russia is preparing an assault on the Sumy and Kharkiv Regions, the north-eastern part of Ukraine, closer to summer. However, according to his estimations, Russia will lack the needed amount of personnel to take the cities.