Russian Drone Attacks on Ukraine May Top 1,500 Per Month, UK Intelligence Warns

The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense has provided an update on Russia’s drone activity against Ukraine, forecasting that the number of Shahed drones Russia could launch may exceed 1,500 each month, according to a British Defense Ministry report on January 13.

British intelligence indicated that the number of drone strikes from Russia fluctuated throughout 2024. While Russia launched approximately 1700 Shahed drones of various types in December 2024, this was a decline compared to the 2300 drones launched in November. This marked the first reduction in the total number of launches since April 2024.

According to the British intelligence, weather conditions likely played a role in the reduced activity in December, as several nights saw large waves of drone attacks, following periods of lower or zero activity.

Despite this temporary reduction, British officials suggest that, with no significant disruption to launch platforms or production capabilities, Russia may still maintain a monthly drone strike rate of at least 1500.

In terms of effectiveness, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that over 50% of the Russian drones were intercepted, while others were neutralized through electronic warfare or drifted off course without posing significant threats.

The report also highlighted that smaller, less expensive drones were increasingly being used by Russia to complicate Ukrainian air defense efforts. These drones, often carrying minimal explosive payloads, are designed to overwhelm or confuse radar systems, forcing Ukrainian air defense units to expend more resources in response.

British intelligence further suggested that, despite these tactical adjustments, Russia is likely to continue its monthly drone campaigns, potentially maintaining a steady launch rate exceeding 1500 units, depending on various operational factors.

Earlier, on January 1, Russian forces used Shahed drones equipped with advanced Chinese-made Controlled Reception Pattern Antennas (CPRA) during their attack on Kyiv. These antennas, which are typically intended for agricultural purposes, allowed the drones to better withstand Ukrainian electronic warfare measures.