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Swedish Navy Encounters Russian Submarines “Almost Weekly,” Signaling Dangerous Shift in Baltic Sea

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Swedish Navy Encounters Russian Submarines “Almost Weekly,” Signaling Dangerous Shift in Baltic Sea
A Russian submarine "Lipetsk" stands at Russia's Northern Fleet base in the town of Severomorsk. (Source: Getty Images)

The Swedish navy has said it is encountering Russian submarines in the Baltic Sea on an almost weekly basis and is bracing for even more activity if Russia's war against Ukraine moves toward a ceasefire or armistice, according to The Guardian on December 6.

Capt. Marko Petkovic, the Swedish navy’s chief of operations, told the newspaper that Moscow is “continuously reinforcing” its presence in the region and that sightings of Russian vessels have become routine for his forces.

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He said contacts with Russian submarines are “very common” and have increased in recent years, adding that Russia is modernizing its fleet and producing one Kilo-class submarine a year at shipyards in St. Petersburg and the Kaliningrad enclave as part of what he described as a “deliberate and constant modernisation programme” of its ships.

Petkovic said Sweden expects the Russian navy to become even more active in the Baltic Sea if fighting in Ukraine subsides. “Once a ceasefire or armistice is eventually in place in Ukraine, you can only assess, and we do assess that Russia will reinforce its capabilities in this region,” he said, arguing that the Swedish navy “needs to continuously grow and focus on the overall picture.”

According to Petkovic, the Baltic Sea region now faces a combination of threats that include suspected drone-based hybrid attacks, alleged sabotage of underwater infrastructure and the movement of aging “shadow fleet” oil tankers carrying Russian crude through crowded shipping lanes.

In response to these risks, Sweden recently hosted a NATO anti-submarine warfare exercise, Playbook Merlin 25, in which nine countries, including Germany, France and the US, practiced submarine-hunting in the Baltic’s complex underwater terrain to prepare for possible attacks on allied vessels or infrastructure.

Petkovic also pointed to Operation Baltic Sentry, a NATO vigilance activity launched in January 2025 to strengthen protection of critical undersea infrastructure, saying that “since [Baltic Sentry] was established in January, we haven’t seen any cable incidents in this region at all.”

Earlier, it was reported that Russia launched major Baltic Sea exercises involving more than 20 warships, about 25 aircraft and helicopters and roughly 3,000 personnel, practicing anti-submarine and anti-drone missions while also beginning to military-escort shadow-fleet oil tankers through the narrow Gulf of Finland.

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