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UK Military Prepares for Potential Two-Front War With Russia and China, Ex-Army Chief Warns
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The UK Ministry of Defense is developing contingency plans for a potential simultaneous war involving both Russia and China, according to General Sir Patrick Sanders, former Chief of the General Staff.
In comments cited by The Times on June 5, Sanders described the threat as a “nightmare scenario” during an episode of The General and The Journalist podcast. He warned that such a crisis could unfold within two years if NATO fails to quickly regenerate its military capabilities.
Sanders revealed that former senior military leaders are already “wargaming” such a dual crisis, in which rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific could divert US forces away from Europe.
In this scenario, Russia could exploit the opportunity by launching an offensive against a vulnerable NATO region, such as the Baltic states or the strategically located Svalbard archipelago.
“Having quickly seized limited objectives, limited territory, they sit back behind a nuclear umbrella and dare NATO to act,” Sanders said. “That’s incredibly high stakes, but the payoff for Putin would be very, very high.”
According to Sanders, if NATO is unable to respond effectively and repel such an attack, “it effectively means the end of NATO.” He also warned that Iran and North Korea could support Russia and China in such war, creating a new axis of revisionist powers.
The Ministry of Defense has already drafted emergency response strategies for such a scenario, which Sanders referred to as a “polycrisis.” However, he criticised the UK’s recently published Strategic Defense Review (SDR) for lacking urgency and clarity.
“There are almost no hard dates, no deadlines, no lists of capabilities — and those are the things that will give effect to the ambition,” he said.
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The UK government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has so far resisted calls to raise defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2034, instead labelling it an ambition rather than a commitment.
Sanders emphasized that deterrence through readiness remains the best path to avoiding war. “A bigger military is an insurance premium against a Russian and Chinese polycrisis,” he said. “The good thing about deterrence is that if it works, you never have to go to war.”
He also called for accelerated investment in high-lethality capabilities such as drones and missiles, and for the UK’s defense industry to increase production. “We can make the force that we have now much, much more lethal, so that relative size matters much less than our ability to inflict losses on much larger forces in a defensive battle. We can do this now, and Ukraine is showing us the way,” Sanders concluded.
Earlier, on May 31, The Guardian reported that the UK’s upcoming strategic defense review will label Russia as an “immediate and pressing” threat, while describing China as a “persistent challenge.” The document, set to be published on June 2, outlines a shift in the UK’s security outlook amid evolving threats from advanced technologies and hostile states.
