Ukraine Has Surpassed Russia in Long-Range Drone Strikes in July

For the first time, Ukraine has outpaced Moscow in long-range drone strikes, and there are reasons to believe that the number of Ukrainian drone attacks will continue to grow, writes British journalist David Gambling in Forbes.

If Russian reports on destroyed Ukrainian drones are to be believed, the Ukrainian Defense Forces launched more long-range drones at Russia in July than ever before—over 520. Meanwhile, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 426 Shahed-type drones.

Ukraine has conducted long-range drone strikes into Russian territory before, with these strikes being precise but relatively rare. However, the country has rapidly increased drone production, with some models only becoming known after they hit their targets or were intercepted by Russian air defense systems. Ukraine now has about 20 types of long-range drones, ranging from converted light aircraft to drones made from plywood. The key factors are affordability, accuracy, and range.

The strike on the Olenya airfield in the Murmansk region demonstrated that Ukrainian manufacturers are meeting the long-range requirements: a drone with a range of 1,800 kilometers threatens "a vast number of Russian military airfields," according to Gambling. The question remains how many such drones Ukraine can produce, but it is clear that production figures will continue to rise.

Russia is also trying to increase its drone production, with a large factory in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, expected to begin production soon. However, this has not yet impacted the number of Shahed drones launched against Ukraine, notes the author. Additionally, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are now quite skilled at shooting down this type of drone—official reports indicate that between 90% and 100% of drones are intercepted.

Ukraine also has an acoustic tracking and warning system for drone trajectories, an effective tool apparently not possessed by the Russian army. Consequently, Ukrainian drone strikes have been significantly more effective than Russian Shahed attacks on Ukraine. While precise statistics on targeted hits are currently hard to compile, it is evident that Russian oil facilities and aircraft are being destroyed, and the energy system is beginning to suffer from power outages.

In essence, Ukraine is forcing the Russian forces to choose: either withdraw some air defense systems from the front line to protect key domestic targets or accept increasing damage to airfields and oil facilities, writes the author. Several manufacturers have claimed they can produce around 500 drones per month. Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin has stated that 10,000 drones with a range of hundreds of kilometers will be produced this year, which amounts to over 830 drones per month.

Ukraine has not yet surpassed the 600 Shahed drones launched by Russia in March and December. However, July could represent a turning point in the strategic drone war and signal the beginning of escalating challenges for Russia.