Ukraine’s Missile Interception Rate Falls Amid Ammo Shortage and Increased Russian Attacks

In comparison to the previous half-year, Ukraine has intercepted significantly fewer Russian missiles due to the lack and delay of air defense ammunition.

According to a Wall Street Journal analysis based on daily data from the Ukrainian Air Force Command, in the past six months, Ukraine intercepted around 46% of Russian missiles, compared with 73% in the preceding six-month period.

In the last month, the interception rate dropped to 30% of missiles. However, the interception rate for long-range Shahed drones, which are relatively easier to shoot down, decreased by only 1 percentage point to 82% over the past six months.

One of the reasons for the decline in the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense is Russia’s escalation in drone and missile attacks, coupled with the deployment of increasingly challenging-to-intercept weaponry, such as ballistic missiles. Russia’s large-scale attacks overwhelm Ukrainian air defense, where it does not have time to reload quickly.

In the last six months, Russia has launched approximately 45% more drones and missiles compared to the preceding six months.

Ukraine is also experiencing a shortage of Patriot air defense ammunition due to the West’s delay in providing needed aid.