Is Iran’s Growing Drone Fleet A Threat To Global Security?

Iran has integrated 1,000 new unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into its military, Iranian media reported. The newly added models include Ababil-4, Ababil-5, and Arash drones which are used for reconnaissance, patrol missions, electronic warfare, data collection, and aerial combat.

What are the capabilities of Iran’s new drone arsenal?

As usual for Iranian military developments, the technical details of the Ababil series largely remain classified. Military defense analysts at Defense Express reported that the Ababil-5 is a strike UAV with a flight range of around 480 km. It can carry four anti-tank missiles or deploy precision-guided 2.4 kg mini-bombs. Very little is known about the Ababil-4, but according to analysts, it carries a maximum payload of 50kg.

The Arash series are strike drones with varying technical specifications, Defense Express said. Arash-1 has a payload capacity of up to 30kg, a practical flying ceiling of 5.5 km, and can reach a maximum speed of 480 km/h.

The Arash-2's flight range is 1,000 to 1,600 km, depending on the source. Its aerodynamic design is similar to that of the Arash-1, though the platform is larger for a longer flight range and potentially increases payload capacity. 

All three newly integrated drones have “high destructive power, the ability to bypass defensive layers due to their low radar cross-section (RCS), and the capacity for sustained, autonomous flight without a need for external control”, Iranian media reported. 

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War in Ukraine

An Axis of Evil, Russia and Iran’s Strengthened Alliance. What Does This Mean for Ukraine and the Wider World?

Aug 20, 2024 18:08

Will Iran supply Russia with their latest drones?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is widely acknowledged as the world’s first large-scale drone war. Iran has been a key player and support for Moscow by supplying Russia with thousands of drones. 

HESA Shahed-136 drones are used almost every day to strike Ukrainian civilian, residential, and energy infrastructure. Since the full-scale invasion began, there has been a steady increase in the amount of drones used to attack Ukraine. In November 2024, 2500 Shahed-type drones were used against Ukraine, according to US-based military experts at Breaking Defense. 

Drones are often sent in large numbers known as “drone swarms” in an attempt to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses. Russia has even started equipping its drones with autonomous artificial intelligence in an attempt to better evade Ukraine’s air defenses. 

The sound of "Shahed" drones, a tool of terror, is the same in the skies over the Middle East and Europe. This sound must serve as a wake-up call to the free world, demonstrating that only our unity and resoluteness can save lives and prevent the spread of terror worldwide.

President Zelenskyy

It’s not currently known whether Russia will use Iran’s latest Ababil-4, Ababil-5, or Arash drones in its war on Ukraine. However, in February 2024, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) reported that Russian operators of Iranian-made UAVs were being trained in Syria on Shahed-136, Ababil-3 UAVs, and the Raad remotely piloted aircraft.

Training was conducted by the Lebanese Hezbollah Police and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard on the territory of the Syrian Shayrat military airfield, HUR reported. 

“Iran has also sent technical advisers, who are likely to come from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of Iranian forces, to train Russian operatives in Crimea.” Ian Duncan Smith, a member of British Parliament announced, during a UK Parliament meeting in May 2024. “Iran provided Russia with 300,000 artillery shells and 1 million ammunition rounds between November 2022 and July 2023.”

Russia and Iran are undoubtedly increasing their alliance in what some call the new “axis of evil”, a term coined by then-US President George W. Bush in the months after the 9/11 attacks.

Iran and Russia are preparing to sign a strategic partnership agreement expected to be finalized on January 17, during a meeting between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Moscow. The agreement will focus on defense, energy, and other key areas, including “acute issues on the regional and international agenda,” according to Moscow. 

In addition, Iran has reportedly held secret diplomatic talks with Russia to strengthen military and defense ties, according to a Times report on January 13.

Are Iranian drones a worldwide threat?

In recent years Iran has established itself as one of the world's key players in drone deployment according to senior military officials and independent analysis by the Global Terrorism Trends and Analysis Center (GTTAC).

Iranian drones already feature in wars across four continents; Asia, Africa, Europe, and South America, according to Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

In 2019, Iran increased its supply of drones to militant groups and countries worldwide, including Houthis in Yemen and Shia, militia groups in Iraq and Syria, the Defense Intelligence Agency said. 

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine provided “a new opening for Iran—this time to supply Russia with lethal drones,” ultimately creating a long-term Iran-Russia partnership, the Atlantic Council said.

Shahed-136 drones are cheap and easy to mass produce. Though Ukrainian air defense has been largely successful in downing these drones, the limited, expensive air defense systems and missiles being used to combat them are depleting.

“Iranian one-way attack drones can function as the poor man’s cruise missile, this is really where quantity can have a quality of its own,” Taleblu told reporters. 

This is likely an incentive for proxy militant groups and countries with a smaller budget and weaker arsenal compared to the West, to use Iran's cheap drones.   

A few months after Russia’s full-scale invasion began, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, an Iranian senior military adviser, claimed that “22 world countries are demanding to purchase unmanned aircraft from Iran.” 

As many as 50 countries were “holding discussions” with Tehran about its missiles and drones,Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant claimed In February 2023.

Russia’s war in Ukraine “is providing a powerful showcase for the Shahed,” Jean-Marc Rickli, the head of global and emerging risks at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, told Breaking Defense.

How is the world responding to Iran’s worldwide drone fleet?

Ukraine has been working to establish effective domestically produced interceptor drone solutions and some successful models are already working on the Kursk, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia fronts. 

Ukraine’s efforts to integrate artificial intelligence (AI) technologies advanced in 2024 which work to neutralize Russian electronic warfare jamming technologies and disrupt the connection between drones and their operators. Throughout 2025, anti-drone defenses will be a priority, Nataliia Kushnerska, Head of Ukraine’s Brave1 defense tech cluster said. 

The US and Europe have foreign policy tools, such as sanctions, to confront Russia and Iran. The EU considers Iranian-made weapons transfers “a direct threat to European security.” 

In November 2024, the European Council introduced a “prohibition on the export, transfer, supply, or sale from the EU to Iran of components used in the development and production of missiles and UAVs” due to “Iran’s military support of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and armed groups and entities in the Middle East and the Red Sea region.”

The US government identified and sanctioned the various suppliers of Iran’s UAV production enterprise. The US and its allied nations like the UK and France have conducted regular seizures of Iranian smuggled material. The US has avoided attacking drone production facilities inside Iran due to the risk of regional escalation. 

Though sanctions have caused disruptions, those applied so far have not been enough to thwart Iran’s growing worldwide drone fleet. Sanctions have been circumvented, and Western components are still found in drones used to attack Ukraine. 

“Iran’s potential market concerns countries that are subject to Western sanctions or do not fear Western sanctions, or do not want to be bound by the conditions that Western countries impose when selling their weapons,” Rickli told Breaking Defense. 

Experts are also concerned that the Iran-Russian “axis of evil” will open new partnerships for Moscow with Iran’s proxy forces. Iran and Russia’s latest defense agreement could allow a larger budget for Iran to “increase weapons shipments, creating new opportunities for Russia to tap sources of black-market weapons and skirt sanctions” Breaking Defense said. “Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias could play a more outsized role in the Iran-Russia relationship.”

Like the Soviet Union before it, Iran is a deeply ideological regime that is unlikely to change its fundamental outlook on the world. Dealing with Iran, therefore, calls for a bipartisan, long-term strategy.

Atlantic Council

Russia has already started shipments like these on a smaller scale. In March-April 2022, rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) and anti-tank missiles, as well as Brazilian-designed rocket launcher systems, were sent to Russia from Iraq, the Guardian reported. 

The strengthening “axis of evil” relationship is not just a concern for Ukraine, but a threat to global security. Sanctions have not yet strictly deterred drone production and procurement. Ukraine continues to seek support from Western allies to strengthen air defense, while Iran’s drone fleet continues to develop. Peace in Ukraine only comes through strength, and stronger sanctions and restrictions need to be put in place.