Realistic Conditions for Ceasefire Unlikely Before Spring, Budanov Says

Negotiations to end Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine could resume in late September, though realistic conditions for a ceasefire are unlikely to emerge before spring.

Head of the Presidential Office Kyrylo Budanov shared these projections during an interview with The New York Times on September 4.

A new round of discussions is expected in late September, shortly after Russia’s parliamentary elections and weeks ahead of the US midterm elections. The process may begin with a visit to Kyiv by US presidential representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, following a previous proposal by Moscow for Ukrainian representatives to travel to the Russian capital.

During an earlier round of negotiations in February 2026, Moscow unexpectedly invited the Ukrainian delegation to visit the Russian capital to continue talks, which could have allowed for a direct meeting with Vladimir Putin.

However, the trip presented significant security risks for the Ukrainian team. Budanov is currently on Russia's wanted list over terrorism charges filed during his time as head of military intelligence. Ultimately, the Ukrainian delegation declined the trip to Moscow, bringing negotiations to a standstill.

Russia is currently escalating the situation as both sides seek to improve their leverage ahead of potential agreements.

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War in Ukraine

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According to The New York Times, perspectives within the Ukrainian leadership remain divided regarding the negotiation process. Some officials advocate pursuing an agreement to prevent further loss of life, while others caution that major concessions could negatively impact the Ukrainian military and society.

Budanov noted that he has engaged in multiple direct communications with the head of Russian military intelligence, Igor Kostyukov. Their initial contact took place in 2022 through Turkish mediation, focusing specifically on establishing Black Sea maritime corridors for Ukrainian grain exports.

Previously, CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced visit to Moscow, where he sought to persuade Russian leadership that its position was weak and that further escalation would only worsen its circumstances.

However, his efforts failed to convince Vladimir Putin to make concessions on Ukraine, and the Kremlin instead hardened its stance. Following the meetings, Russian forces intensified strikes on Kyiv, signaling to Washington that Moscow intended to continue its offensive without shifting to a more flexible position.

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