Russia May Intensify Ballistic Strikes Before Ukraine Launches Patriot Missile Production, ISW Warns

Russia could step up its ballistic missile attacks to maximize destruction before Ukraine establishes its domestic production of Patriot interceptor missiles, according to the Institute for the Study of War on July 9.

The military analysts note that while the Ukrainian defense forces successfully intercept cruise missiles and drones, a severe shortage of specialized interceptor ammunition leaves them vulnerable to heavier ballistic threats.

This gap was evident when Ukrainian forces failed to intercept any ballistic missiles during two recent mass attacks on the nights of July 1 to July 2 and July 5 to July 6. The urgency grows as Ukraine's military intelligence reports that Russia maintains a stockpile of up to 200 9M723 ballistic missiles and 110 9M728/9M729 cruise missiles for the Iskander-M system, with plans to deliver up to 700 ballistic and 100 cruise variants in 2026.

The timeline for localized manufacturing remains highly uncertain. US President Donald Trump recently indicated that the United States has not yet officially notified the American manufacturer about licensing Ukraine to produce the Patriot interceptors.

The Institute for the Study of War emphasized that establishing production depends heavily on securing basic components and expanding the entire supply chain.

"However, it is unclear how much time Ukraine will need to start producing interceptor missiles, as production capacity will depend on the availability of basic components that make up the Patriot interceptor missile and the scaling of the entire supply chain that produces these components," the report states.

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War in Ukraine

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The Russian defense industry continues to exploit this defensive bottleneck. Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Military Intelligence, stated on July 8 that Russia can manufacture between 60 and 65 Iskander ballistic missiles per month.

Current intelligence assessments indicate that Moscow sustains production lines at last year's levels, allowing for the monthly delivery of approximately 60 9M723 ballistic missiles and up to 10 9M728/9M729 cruise missiles. Analysts warn that Moscow is highly likely to leverage this operational window to inflict maximum damage before Ukraine can secure its airspace independently.

Poland’s Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stated that Ukraine could begin producing Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missiles within the coming weeks, highlighting Warsaw's essential role in transferring the necessary technology and equipment.

He noted that Poland was one of four NATO members granted the specific status allowing such technology transfers. While Kosiniak-Kamysz acknowledged that establishing production would be challenging due to a global shortage of Patriot interceptors, he emphasized that preparations were expected to take only several weeks and that Poland was ready to immediately begin cooperation to move the project forward quickly.

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