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Russia Could Launch Limited Attack on NATO Territory to Test Alliance Unity, Czech General Warns

Russia could carry out a limited attack on part of a NATO member state’s territory to test the alliance’s cohesion, according to the Czech News Agency (ČTK) on October 15.
Czech Chief of the General Staff Miroslav Hlaváč told ČTK that Moscow is already conducting hostile activities across Europe below the threshold of open war. He pointed particularly to hybrid operations and cyberattacks intended to divide European societies and weaken Western support for Ukraine.
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Hlaváč identified fulfilling NATO commitments, strengthening air defenses, and expanding counter-drone capabilities as critical priorities for Czech defense. He also stressed the need for the state to withstand Russian hybrid operations, while describing an attack using aerial systems as the most likely direct threat to Czech territory.
“I want to emphasize that we are prepared, and we will defend the Czech Republic with the means and capabilities we have,” Hlaváč told ČTK.
He noted that responding to an armed conflict would depend not only on the military, but also on the capabilities of the Czech state and its defense industry.
The Czech military is currently introducing Israeli-made Spyder air defense systems and is working to acquire additional units, ČTK reported. Four Spyder batteries are expected to replace aging Soviet-designed 2K12 KUB systems, with full integration planned by 2027.
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The Baltic states have also issued warnings that Moscow might test NATO’s cohesion.
Estonian Defense Minister Martin Herem cautioned on October 13 that Russia is likely to test a member state regardless of how its war against Ukraine ends, naming Latvia as a possible target alongside Estonia.
He argued that Moscow would seek political influence rather than territory, potentially acting below the threshold for invoking Article 5 to sow distrust among allies.
Meanwhile, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, has presented a new defense strategy aimed at halting an initial Russian offensive, drawing on Ukraine's battlefield use of inexpensive drones.
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